Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Madrid, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 29 April 2025, Tuesday


	Francis Tiafoe		Alexandre Muller

	1	2
	1.62	2.3	Watch
	1.62	2.25	Watch
	1.64	2.26	Watch
	1.72	2.25
	1.68	2.16	Watch
	1.67	2.2	Watch
	1.63	2.32	Watch
	1.64	2.26
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.65 ↓ (1.91)	2.25 ↑ (1.91)

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Francis Tiafoe
57.7%

Alexandre Muller
42.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.9%

52.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Francis Tiafoe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Francis Tiafoe's performance.

Alexandre Muller has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Alexandre Muller might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Francis Tiafoe than the current prediction. (-9.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Francis Tiafoe that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alexandre Muller than the current prediction. (+9.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Alexandre Muller could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80.5%	0%	19.5%

Francis Tiafoe - Alexandre Muller Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +3 Games - Muller (1.62) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Francis Tiafoe will win (32 of 40 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 67.6% – 92.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Francis Tiafoe will win (15 of 17 users predict this - 88.24%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 18 Selected Experts predict this event. Tiafoe (votes: 15 - 83.3%). Muller (votes: 3 - 16.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

#ad

Preview

Tiafoe is ranked ATP: 17. Muller is ranked ATP: 39.

One and the other player get a very uncertain game.

Tiafoe could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match the chances to win of both players are almost equal.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Tiafoe won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2:0

Last Results with these Odds

Alexandre Muller - the odds 1.91 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Francis Tiafoe
ATP Madrid
26.04.25	Francis Tiafoe - Luciano Darderi	Darderi L. retired ✺
ATP Barcelona
15.04.25	Francis Tiafoe - Jaume Munar	1:2 ✺
14.04.25	Tomas Machac - Francis Tiafoe	Canceled ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
09.04.25	Francis Tiafoe - Alexei Popyrin	1:2 ✺
08.04.25	Francis Tiafoe - Miomir Kecmanovic	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 ?L?LW
- Alexandre Muller
ATP Madrid
26.04.25	Alexandre Muller - Ugo Humbert	2:1 ✺
24.04.25	David Goffin - Alexandre Muller	Goffin D. retired ✺
ATP Munich
14.04.25	Alexander Zverev - Alexandre Muller	2:0 ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
09.04.25	Daniil Medvedev - Alexandre Muller	2:1 ✺
07.04.25	Alexandre Muller - Camilo Ugo Carabelli	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 W?LLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Acapulco
26.02.25	Francis Tiafoe - Alexandre Muller	2:0

Upcoming Matches