Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Suzhou, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 21 October 2025, Tuesday


	Ilia Simakin		Sho Shimabukuro

	1	2
	2.5	1.5	Watch
			Watch
	2.42	1.5
	2.38	1.59
	3.94	1.22	Watch
	2.37	1.55	Watch
	2.42	1.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.67 ↑ (2.2)	1.48 ↓ (1.63)

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ilia Simakin
35.6%

Sho Shimabukuro
64.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.6%

57.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.8%

59.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ilia Simakin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ilia Simakin's form might have worsened.

Sho Shimabukuro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Sho Shimabukuro's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ilia Simakin than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ilia Simakin, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sho Shimabukuro than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Sho Shimabukuro, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Ilia Simakin - Sho Shimabukuro Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Sho Shimabukuro will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Simakin is ranked ATP: 256. Shimabukuro is ranked ATP: 212.

Simakin is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Shimabukuro has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Simakin may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Shimabukuro might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Simakin won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Last Results with these Odds

Sho Shimabukuro - the odds 1.63 are the expected chance of winning is 57.39%, but this team recently wins 45% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ilia Simakin
ATP Almaty
11.10.25	Ilia Simakin - Ugo Blanchet	1:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
09.09.25	Gauthier Onclin - Ilia Simakin	2:0 ✺
04.09.25	Ilia Simakin - Yasutaka Uchiyama	0:2 ✺
03.09.25	Beibit Zhukayev - Ilia Simakin	1:2 ✺
29.08.25	Ilia Simakin - Sho Shimabukuro	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 LLLWL
- Sho Shimabukuro
ATP Challenger
18.10.25	Kyrian Jacquet - Sho Shimabukuro	2:1 ✺
17.10.25	Sho Shimabukuro - Harold Mayot	2:0 ✺
16.10.25	Sho Shimabukuro - Sergey Fomin	2:1 ✺
14.10.25	Sho Shimabukuro - Petr Bar-Biryukov	2:0 ✺
ATP Tokyo
25.09.25	Sho Shimabukuro - Sebastian Korda	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 LWWWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
29.08.25	Ilia Simakin - Sho Shimabukuro	0:2

Ilia Simakin - Sho Shimabukuro: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide