Match Info

AFL - Round 18

Date: 11 July 2026, Saturday

Location: Adelaide Oval (Adelaide)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	AFL TV
United-kingdom	TNT Sports 7
Usa	Fox Soccer Plus


	Adelaide Crows		Gold Coast Suns

	1	2
	1.3	3.6
	1.32	3.05
			Watch
	1.33	3.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.32 ↓ (1.42)	3.3 ↑ (2.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 151.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-20)

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Adelaide Crows
71.5%

Gold Coast Suns
28.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

67.1%

32.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66.6%

33.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Adelaide Crows has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)

Gold Coast Suns has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Adelaide Crows than the current prediction. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gold Coast Suns than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Adelaide Crows - Gold Coast Suns Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Adelaide will win (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 86:66

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Key Events of the Match

1st Quarter (20 - 15)
02:43, King B. (G),
07:20, Dawson J. (G),
09:27, (Behind Rushed),
10:31, Rachele J. (G),
16:33, Rankine I. (Behind),
18:32, Keays B. (Behind),
20:23, Rachele J. (G),
23:55, (Behind Rushed),
26:42, (Behind Rushed),
30:00, Humphrey B. (G),
2nd Quarter (30 - 8)
02:51, Rankine I. (G),
04:16, Rachele J. (G),
09:55, Dawson J. (Behind),
10:18, Nankervis L. (Behind),
11:47, Petracca C. (Behind),
12:49, Keays B. (G),
14:09, Soligo J. (G),
15:33, Walker T. (Behind),
17:31, Walker T. (Behind),
18:03, Walter J. (G),
25:00, King B. (Behind),
26:47, Peatling J. (Behind),
31:37, (Behind Rushed),
3rd Quarter (40 - 7)
02:05, Dawson J. (G),
03:53, Thiltorpe R. (Behind),
06:56, Fogarty D. (G),
12:01, McAndrew L. (G),
15:04, Walter J. (G),
19:29, Miller T. (Behind),
20:13, Walker T. (Behind),
22:14, Walker T. (Behind),
23:28, Neal-Bullen A. (G),
26:59, Walker T. (G),
28:19, Taylor Z. (Behind),
30:17, Nankervis L. (G),
4th Quarter (38 - 19)
01:20, Lombard L. (G),
02:41, Walker T. (G),
07:06, Rachele J. (Behind),
10:37, Rankine I. (Behind),
11:59, King B. (Behind),
14:40, Walker T. (G),
16:21, Walker T. (G),
18:38, Keays B. (G),
21:44, Fogarty D. (G),
23:07, Petracca C. (G),
24:46, Walker T. (G),
30:09, Walter J. (G),

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ AFL (Play Offs: ) and 14).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Adelaide won 2.

Adelaide is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Gold Coast is going through a series of losses (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Gold Coast may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Adelaide is seen as the favorite.

We predict that Adelaide will win today's game, with odds of 1.32.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Adelaide won 14 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 2096:1512. (average 104.8:75.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Adelaide won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 971:590. (average 107.9:65.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Adelaide Crows
AFL
03.07.26	West Coast Eagles - Adelaide Crows	74:99 ✺
27.06.26	Port Adelaide Power - Adelaide Crows	97:71 ✺
19.06.26	Adelaide Crows - Melbourne Demons	79:62 ✺
11.06.26	Western Bulldogs - Adelaide Crows	64:121 ✺
04.06.26	Adelaide Crows - Geelong Cats	75:74 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 WLWWW
- Gold Coast Suns
AFL
04.07.26	Gold Coast Suns - Collingwood Magpies	98:104 ✺
28.06.26	Fremantle Dockers - Gold Coast Suns	80:29 ✺
19.06.26	Gold Coast Suns - Hawthorn Hawks	97:113 ✺
12.06.26	Geelong Cats - Gold Coast Suns	105:60 ✺
06.06.26	Gold Coast Suns - Brisbane Lions	75:106 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

AFL
20.07.25	Adelaide Crows - Gold Coast Suns	107:46
04.04.25	Gold Coast Suns - Adelaide Crows	91:90
16.03.24	Gold Coast Suns - Adelaide Crows	60:54
05.08.23	Adelaide Crows - Gold Coast Suns	89:61
03.06.23	Gold Coast Suns - Adelaide Crows	112:87
19.06.22	Gold Coast Suns - Adelaide Crows	116:73
02.04.21	Adelaide Crows - Gold Coast Suns	95:85

Adelaide Crows - Gold Coast Suns: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide