Match Info

AFL - Round 15

Date: 19 June 2026, Friday

Location: People First Stadium (Gold Coast)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	AFL TV
United-kingdom	TNT Sports 4
Usa	Fox Soccer Plus, FOX Sports 2


	Gold Coast Suns		Hawthorn Hawks

	1	X	2
	2.25		1.65
	2.05		1.68
				Watch
	2.10	81.00	1.67
	2		1.73
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.1 ↑ (1.91)	20.25	1.68 ↓ (1.91)

The most likely Over/Under: 174.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-3)

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gold Coast Suns
42.5%

Draw
4.4%

Hawthorn Hawks
53.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.4%

45.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gold Coast Suns has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Gold Coast Suns's form might have worsened.

Hawthorn Hawks has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gold Coast Suns than the current prediction. (+11.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Gold Coast Suns, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hawthorn Hawks than the current prediction. (-7.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Hawthorn Hawks, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
77.8%	0%	22.2%

Gold Coast Suns - Hawthorn Hawks Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Gold Coast will win (votes: 7 - 77.8%). Hawthorn will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Gold Coast: 50.6% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Gold Coast (votes: 1 - 50%). Hawthorn (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 86:89

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Key Events of the Match

1st Quarter (19 - 41)
00:30, Humphrey B. (G),
05:55, Jeffrey J. (Behind),
07:11, Long B. (G),
09:31, Lewis M. (Behind),
10:29, Moore D. (G),
14:34, Lombard L. (G),
20:49, Lewis M. (G),
21:58, Moore D. (G),
23:41, Hardwick B. (G),
25:53, Watson N. (G),
27:06, Ward J. (Behind),
27:31, Day W. (Behind),
29:12, Amon K. (Behind),
29:52, Chol M. (Behind),
31:24, Newcombe J. (G),
2nd Quarter (28 - 14)
03:05, Long B. (Behind),
06:51, (Behind Rushed),
09:33, Watson N. (G),
11:49, Mackenzie C. (Behind),
13:27, Newcombe J. (G),
14:30, Moore D. (Behind),
15:12, Miller T. (G),
17:57, Witts J. (G),
19:43, Lombard L. (G),
23:45, Humphrey B. (Behind),
25:48, Walter J. (G),
29:37, Rowell M. (Behind),
3rd Quarter (27 - 26)
00:55, Long B. (Behind),
03:40, Long B. (G),
04:50, (Behind Rushed),
06:27, Chol M. (G),
07:46, Day W. (G),
09:02, Ginnivan J. (G),
13:23, King B. (G),
22:14, Watson N. (G),
24:34, Long B. (G),
27:20, King B. (Behind),
28:33, Walter J. (Behind),
29:23, Petracca C. (G),
30:56, (Behind Rushed),
4th Quarter (23 - 32)
00:46, Macdonald C. (G),
03:00, Chol M. (G),
04:06, Macdonald C. (G),
05:20, Moore D. (G),
09:06, Long B. (G),
10:50, Weddle J. (Behind),
12:13, Holman N. (Behind),
13:10, Walter J. (G),
17:53, Chol M. (Behind),
19:19, (Behind Rushed),
20:28, Moore D. (G),
23:06, Holman N. (G),
27:04, Humphrey B. (Behind),
27:55, (Behind Rushed),
31:21, Walter J. (Behind),

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 9 in the zone Promotion ~ AFL (Play Offs: ) and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ AFL (Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Gold Coast won 3.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Gold Coast may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

We predict that Hawthorn will win today's game, with odds of 1.72.

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Gold Coast won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 1360:1513. (average 71.6:79.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Gold Coast won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 736:517. (average 92:64.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gold Coast Suns
AFL
12.06.26	Geelong Cats - Gold Coast Suns	105:60 ✺
06.06.26	Gold Coast Suns - Brisbane Lions	75:106 ✺
22.05.26	North Melbourne Kangaroos - Gold Coast Suns	111:105 ✺
15.05.26	Gold Coast Suns - Port Adelaide Power	98:73 ✺
09.05.26	Gold Coast Suns - St Kilda Saints	89:60 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 LLLWW
- Hawthorn Hawks
AFL
05.06.26	Hawthorn Hawks - Western Bulldogs	71:77 ✺
28.05.26	St Kilda Saints - Hawthorn Hawks	67:119 ✺
21.05.26	Hawthorn Hawks - Adelaide Crows	75:66 ✺
16.05.26	Melbourne Demons - Hawthorn Hawks	120:81 ✺
07.05.26	Fremantle Dockers - Hawthorn Hawks	88:73 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 LWWLL

Latest Head to Head

AFL
24.04.26	Hawthorn Hawks - Gold Coast Suns	112:63
15.05.25	Gold Coast Suns - Hawthorn Hawks	104:96
13.04.24	Gold Coast Suns - Hawthorn Hawks	109:56
25.06.23	Gold Coast Suns - Hawthorn Hawks	101:34
05.08.22	Hawthorn Hawks - Gold Coast Suns	70:63
28.05.22	Gold Coast Suns - Hawthorn Hawks	121:54
29.05.21	Gold Coast Suns - Hawthorn Hawks	113:76

Gold Coast Suns - Hawthorn Hawks: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide