Match Info

AFL - Round 17

Date: 4 July 2026, Saturday

Location: People First Stadium (Gold Coast)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SupeSport ESPN 1
Australia	AFL TV
Canada	fubo Sports Network, TSN 4
New-zealand	Sky Sport 7
United-kingdom	TNT Sports 1
Usa	Fox Soccer Plus


	Gold Coast Suns		Collingwood Magpies

	1	X	2
	1.62		2.3
	1.62	75.00	2.20
				Watch
	1.64	80.00	2.24
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.63 ↑ (1.54)	51.67	2.25 ↓ (2.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 171.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-6)

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gold Coast Suns
57%

Draw
1.8%

Collingwood Magpies
41.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

61.9%

38.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.1%

42.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gold Coast Suns has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

Collingwood Magpies has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gold Coast Suns than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Collingwood Magpies than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	0%	50%

Gold Coast Suns - Collingwood Magpies Predictions

Users Predictions: 2 users predict this event. Gold Coast will win (votes: 1 - 50%). Collingwood will win (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 89:83

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Key Events of the Match

1st Quarter (20 - 28)
01:32, Membrey T. (G),
05:59, Harrison H. (G),
10:53, Buller J. (Behind),
12:12, Walter J. (G),
14:33, Sidebottom S. (Behind),
17:58, Read E. (G),
20:47, Uwland Z. (G),
22:06, Long N. (Behind),
23:06, Crisp J. (G),
27:54, Lombard L. (Behind),
28:35, Anderson A. (G),
31:56, (Behind Rushed),
33:19, Membrey T. (Behind),
2nd Quarter (25 - 29)
03:25, Petracca C. (G),
04:53, Lombard L. (G),
06:01, Patterson D. (G),
07:51, De Goey J. (Behind),
10:49, (Behind Rushed),
12:49, Anderson A. (G),
15:03, Sidebottom S. (G),
16:44, Membrey T. (Behind),
21:15, Murray J. (Behind),
22:49, Harrison H. (Behind),
24:51, McStay D. (G),
26:50, McStay D. (G),
28:55, (Behind Rushed),
31:20, Humphrey B. (G),
3rd Quarter (27 - 22)
01:30, Petracca C. (Behind),
04:56, Walter J. (Behind),
06:53, Daicos N. (G),
08:08, Humphrey B. (Behind),
09:22, King B. (G),
10:48, (Behind Rushed),
12:23, Long B. (G),
14:15, Anderson N. (G),
15:21, Swadling S. (G),
16:42, (Behind Rushed),
19:32, King B. (G),
24:43, Maynard B. (Behind),
28:55, (Behind Rushed),
30:36, Membrey T. (G),
4th Quarter (26 - 25)
02:12, Membrey T. (G),
03:56, King B. (G),
07:14, McStay D. (G),
09:26, Schultz L. (G),
12:42, (Behind Rushed),
13:34, Humphrey B. (G),
16:21, Humphrey B. (G),
20:00, Harrison H. (Behind),
23:57, Lipinski P. (G),
29:30, Lombard L. (Behind),
30:23, Long B. (G),

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 11 and 10 in the zone Promotion ~ AFL (Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Gold Coast won 2.

Gold Coast is on a losing streak (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Collingwood's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Gold Coast may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Collingwood has had a series of home games.

Gold Coast is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

We predict that Collingwood will win today's game, with odds of 2.22.

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Gold Coast won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 963:1303. (average 64.2:86.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Gold Coast won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 650:827. (average 72.2:91.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gold Coast Suns
AFL
28.06.26	Fremantle Dockers - Gold Coast Suns	80:29 ✺
19.06.26	Gold Coast Suns - Hawthorn Hawks	97:113 ✺
12.06.26	Geelong Cats - Gold Coast Suns	105:60 ✺
06.06.26	Gold Coast Suns - Brisbane Lions	75:106 ✺
22.05.26	North Melbourne Kangaroos - Gold Coast Suns	111:105 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Collingwood Magpies
AFL
27.06.26	Collingwood Magpies - Richmond Tigers	106:72 ✺
20.06.26	Collingwood Magpies - Port Adelaide Power	78:51 ✺
08.06.26	Collingwood Magpies - Melbourne Demons	75:83 ✺
30.05.26	Western Bulldogs - Collingwood Magpies	97:93 ✺
23.05.26	Collingwood Magpies - West Coast Eagles	92:82 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

AFL
11.07.25	Gold Coast Suns - Collingwood Magpies	69:63
29.06.24	Gold Coast Suns - Collingwood Magpies	101:90
01.07.23	Gold Coast Suns - Collingwood Magpies	42:120
02.07.22	Gold Coast Suns - Collingwood Magpies	62:67
30.04.22	Collingwood Magpies - Gold Coast Suns	115:90
30.04.21	Collingwood Magpies - Gold Coast Suns	55:79
14.09.20	Collingwood Magpies - Gold Coast Suns	68:46

Gold Coast Suns - Collingwood Magpies: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide