Match Info
AFL - Play Offs - Quarter-finalsDate: 12 September 2025, FridayLocation: Adelaide Oval (Adelaide)Where to Watch on TV: | |
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 Australia | AFL, Fox Footy |
 Canada | TSN 4 |
 Germany | Sportdigital1+ |
 New-zealand | Sky Sport 2 |
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Adelaide Crows |
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Hawthorn Hawks |
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1 |
X |
2 |
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 |
1.75 |
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2.15 |
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 |
1.7 |
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2 |
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 |
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 Watch |
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1.79 |
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1.99 |
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Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.75
(1.75) |
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2.05 ↑
(2.03) |
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- The most likely Over/Under: 164.50
- The most likely Handicap: 1 (-4)
- The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by
#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ Current Win Probability
Adelaide Crows
54% | Hawthorn Hawks
46% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Adelaide Crows has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)Hawthorn Hawks has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Adelaide Crows than the current prediction. (-7.6%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Adelaide Crows that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hawthorn Hawks than the current prediction. (+7.6%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Hawthorn Hawks could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.Predictions
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Adelaide (votes: 1 - 50%). Hawthorn (votes: 1 - 50%).
Users Predictions:
Adelaide Crows will win
(6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.78% – 100%.
Score Prediction (the most likely result by bookmakers): 84:80 
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Key Events of the Match
- 1st Quarter (20 - 28)
- 00:28, Gunston J. (G),
- 01:39, Watson N. (G),
- 03:27, Worpel J. (Behind),
- 04:17, Amon K. (G),
- 10:01, (Behind Rushed),
- 12:28, Thiltorpe R. (G),
- 14:07, Hardwick B. (Behind),
- 15:43, Dawson J. (Behind),
- 18:05, Keays B. (G),
- 20:47, Peatling J. (G),
- 27:15, Gunston J. (Behind),
- 28:42, Watson N. (G),
- 30:44, (Behind Rushed),
- 2nd Quarter (4 - 15)
- 02:39, Chol M. (Behind),
- 04:31, Keays B. (Behind),
- 07:43, Weddle J. (G),
- 09:45, (Behind Rushed),
- 19:06, Walker T. (Behind),
- 20:20, (Behind Rushed),
- 21:45, Walker T. (Behind),
- 23:10, Moore D. (G),
- 27:26, Watson N. (Behind),
- 3rd Quarter (25 - 36)
- 01:04, Gunston J. (G),
- 03:07, Thiltorpe R. (G),
- 05:33, Gunston J. (G),
- 07:47, Macdonald C. (Behind),
- 08:48, Meek L. (Behind),
- 09:52, Watson N. (Behind),
- 11:21, (Behind Rushed),
- 12:43, Macdonald C. (G),
- 16:58, Fogarty D. (G),
- 19:08, Gunston J. (Behind),
- 22:19, Gunston J. (G),
- 25:26, Pedlar L. (G),
- 27:29, Watson N. (Behind),
- 28:01, Butler S. (G),
- 29:50, Gunston J. (Behind),
- 30:33, Thiltorpe R. (G),
- 4th Quarter (18 - 22)
- 01:18, Gunston J. (G),
- 02:52, Weddle J. (Behind),
- 05:15, Rachele J. (G),
- 06:38, Watson N. (Behind),
- 10:03, Weddle J. (Behind),
- 11:53, Butler S. (G),
- 15:40, Newcombe J. (G),
- 18:51, Weddle J. (Behind),
- 21:54, Rachele J. (G),
- 27:26, Soligo J. (G),
Preview
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Adelaide won 2.Adelaide is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).Hawthorn has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).Hawthorn may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days. The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.We predict that Adelaide will win today's game, with odds of 1.79.In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Adelaide won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 15 matches, and goals 1499:1771. (average 75:88.6).Including home matches between the teams, Adelaide won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 653:784. (average 81.6:98).
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Form
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
Latest Head to Head
| AFL | | | 01.08.25 | Adelaide Crows - Hawthorn Hawks | 101:87 | | 13.06.25 | Hawthorn Hawks - Adelaide Crows | 47:44 | | 28.07.24 | Adelaide Crows - Hawthorn Hawks | 58:124 | | 31.05.24 | Hawthorn Hawks - Adelaide Crows | 107:80 | | 22.04.23 | Hawthorn Hawks - Adelaide Crows | 76:79 | | 10.07.22 | Hawthorn Hawks - Adelaide Crows | 86:54 | | 24.07.21 | Adelaide Crows - Hawthorn Hawks | 102:83 |
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