The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Hawthorn Hawks 65.6%
Draw 1.5%
Melbourne Demons 32.9%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
76.2%
23.8%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Hawthorn Hawks has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.6%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Hawthorn Hawks's form might have worsened.
Melbourne Demons has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.1%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Melbourne Demons's recent form is better than expected.
Hawthorn Hawks - Melbourne Demons Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 95:80
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Key Events of the Match
1st Quarter (8 - 47)
02:59, Fritsch B. (G),
04:17, Langdon E. (G),
05:33, Hill M. (Behind),
07:54, Windsor C. (Behind),
09:07, Petty H. (Behind),
10:20, Petty H. (G),
13:24, (Behind Rushed),
14:28, Jefferson M. (G),
16:42, Laurie B. (Behind),
19:17, Langdon E. (Behind),
20:40, Ward J. (G),
23:20, Jefferson M. (Behind),
24:57, Laurie B. (G),
26:55, Pickett K. (G),
29:23, Sharp H. (G),
2nd Quarter (1 - 39)
00:46, (Behind Rushed),
07:28, Fritsch B. (G),
09:34, Petty H. (G),
15:30, Jefferson M. (Behind),
16:55, Van Rooyen J. (G),
20:12, McCabe W. (Behind),
22:55, Langdon E. (Behind),
25:47, Fritsch B. (G),
28:45, Van Rooyen J. (G),
30:17, Fritsch B. (G),
3rd Quarter (26 - 27)
01:13, Ginnivan J. (G),
02:23, Pickett K. (Behind),
03:29, Sharp H. (G),
08:45, Van Rooyen J. (G),
10:23, Van Rooyen J. (G),
13:10, Pickett L. (G),
14:43, Dalton J. (G),
18:08, Fitzgerald J. (Behind),
19:24, (Behind Rushed),
20:49, Van Rooyen J. (Behind),
23:19, (Behind Rushed),
25:11, Chol M. (G),
29:04, Chol M. (G),
4th Quarter (55 - 12)
00:27, Ward J. (G),
02:49, Ginnivan J. (G),
05:12, Chol M. (G),
06:41, Chol M. (G),
09:54, Lewis M. (G),
13:58, Gunston J. (G),
17:10, Macdonald C. (G),
21:37, Day W. (G),
26:59, Chol M. (G),
28:11, Ginnivan J. (Behind),
30:01, Fritsch B. (G),
31:35, Van Rooyen J. (G),
Preview
Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ AFL (Play Offs: ) and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ AFL (Play Offs: )).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hawthorn won 2.
Hawthorn is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).
Melbourne has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
Hawthorn could have a small edge in this match.
We predict that Hawthorn will win today's game, with odds of 1.51.
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Hawthorn won 8 matches, drew 1 match, lost 11 matches, and goals 1652:1620. (average 82.6:81).
Including home matches between the teams, Hawthorn won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 868:859. (average 78.9:78.1).
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