Match Info

AFL - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 12 September 2026, Saturday

Location: The Gabba (Brisbane)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SupeSport ESPN 2
Australia	AFL TV
New-zealand	Sky Sport 5
South-africa	SupeSport ESPN 2
United-kingdom	HBO Max, TNT Sports 1
Usa	FOX Sports 2


	Brisbane Lions		Adelaide Crows

	1	X	2
	1.33		3.35
	1.30	100.00	3.20
				Watch
	1.31		3.1
	1.32		3.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.32 ↓ (1.34)	25 ↓ (75)	3.24 ↑ (3.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 181.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-65)

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Brisbane Lions
68.6%

Draw
3.6%

Adelaide Crows
27.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

69%

1.2%

29.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.2%

0.6%

56.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Brisbane Lions has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Adelaide Crows has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Brisbane Lions than the current prediction. (-32.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Brisbane Lions that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Adelaide Crows than the current prediction. (+29%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Adelaide Crows could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	0%	25%

Brisbane Lions - Adelaide Crows Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Brisbane will win (votes: 3 - 75%). Adelaide will win (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 124:59

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Key Events of the Match

1st Quarter (42 - 15)
00:30, Lohmann K. (G),
01:37, Cameron C. (G),
04:11, Bailey Z. (G),
05:18, Cameron C. (Behind),
06:10, McCluggage H. (G),
07:13, Rayner C. (G),
09:36, Berry J. (Behind),
14:23, Keays B. (Behind),
16:34, Andrews H. (Behind),
18:44, Curtin D. (G),
21:16, Walker T. (Behind),
23:11, Cameron C. (G),
24:57, Hipwood E. (Behind),
26:24, Lester R. (Behind),
28:59, Ashcroft W. (Behind),
31:02, Nankervis L. (G),
33:52, Thiltorpe R. (Behind),
2nd Quarter (30 - 19)
01:38, Rayner C. (Behind),
03:30, Rachele J. (G),
05:26, Fogarty D. (G),
07:11, Fogarty D. (G),
08:18, Neal-Bullen A. (Behind),
09:21, Cameron C. (G),
13:58, Bailey Z. (G),
15:23, Bailey Z. (Behind),
16:04, Hipwood E. (G),
17:56, Cameron C. (G),
21:08, Lohmann K. (Behind),
22:12, Cameron C. (Behind),
23:25, Cameron C. (Behind),
31:38, Allen O. (Behind),
3rd Quarter (39 - 17)
00:33, Bailey Z. (Behind),
00:49, Lohmann K. (G),
05:35, Rachele J. (Behind),
07:37, Morris L. (G),
09:34, Fort D. (Behind),
10:54, Zorko D. (G),
12:44, Thiltorpe R. (G),
16:17, Allen O. (Behind),
18:29, Walker T. (Behind),
21:55, (Behind Rushed),
22:23, Taylor Z. (Behind),
23:42, McKenna C. (G),
25:23, Keays B. (G),
26:34, Michalanney M. (Behind),
28:41, Bailey Z. (G),
30:32, Morris L. (G),
4th Quarter (33 - 40)
01:19, Ah Chee C. (Behind),
03:13, Milera W. (G),
04:23, Rayner C. (G),
07:10, Rankine I. (Behind),
08:48, Bailey Z. (Behind),
10:59, Thiltorpe R. (G),
12:34, Hipwood E. (G),
14:04, Walker T. (G),
16:56, McKenna C. (Behind),
18:40, McCluggage H. (G),
19:49, Walker T. (Behind),
20:26, McKenna C. (Behind),
21:02, Ashcroft L. (G),
22:42, (Behind Rushed),
25:07, Walker T. (G),
26:53, Cameron C. (G),
28:09, Keays B. (G),
30:51, Neal-Bullen A. (G),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Brisbane won 2.

In recent matches, Brisbane has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Adelaide is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

In this match, Brisbane is seen as the favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Brisbane won 8 matches, drew 1 match, lost 11 matches, and goals 1580:1896. (average 79:94.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Brisbane won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 950:1068. (average 79.2:89).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Brisbane Lions
AFL
05.09.26	Sydney Swans - Brisbane Lions	141:88 ✺
21.08.26	Collingwood Magpies - Brisbane Lions	96:159 ✺
15.08.26	Brisbane Lions - Gold Coast Suns	95:53 ✺
07.08.26	Brisbane Lions - Hawthorn Hawks	125:58 ✺
01.08.26	Carlton Blues - Brisbane Lions	154:78 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LWWWL
- Adelaide Crows
AFL
05.09.26	Adelaide Crows - Western Bulldogs	90:68 ✺
22.08.26	Adelaide Crows - Greater Western Sydney Giants	157:101 ✺
14.08.26	Fremantle Dockers - Adelaide Crows	112:88 ✺
08.08.26	Adelaide Crows - Richmond Tigers	63:54 ✺
02.08.26	Essendon Bombers - Adelaide Crows	73:145 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

AFL
26.04.26	Brisbane Lions - Adelaide Crows	127:75
06.06.25	Adelaide Crows - Brisbane Lions	68:63
AAMI Community Series
27.02.25	Brisbane Lions - Adelaide Crows	94:97
AFL
07.07.24	Brisbane Lions - Adelaide Crows	97:86
12.05.24	Adelaide Crows - Brisbane Lions	90:90
12.08.23	Brisbane Lions - Adelaide Crows	99:93
28.05.23	Adelaide Crows - Brisbane Lions	95:78

Brisbane Lions - Adelaide Crows: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide