The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Brisbane Lions 62.8%
Geelong Cats 37.2%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
69.2%
30.8%
Our Initial ML Estimation
70.6%
29.4%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Brisbane Lions has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.4%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Brisbane Lions's form might have worsened.
Geelong Cats has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.4%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Geelong Cats's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Brisbane Lions than the current prediction. (+7.8%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Brisbane Lions, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Geelong Cats than the current prediction. (-7.8%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Geelong Cats, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Brisbane Lions - Geelong Cats Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 96:85
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Key Events of the Match
1st Quarter (13 - 35)
00:24, Mullin O. (Behind),
03:05, Close B. (G),
06:21, (Behind Rushed),
06:57, Curtin C. (G),
11:28, Cameron J. (Behind),
13:04, Mannagh S. (G),
15:51, (Behind Rushed),
17:49, Draper S. (Behind),
20:58, Dangerfield P. (G),
23:59, Smith B. (G),
27:37, Rayner C. (G),
29:15, Cameron J. (Behind),
33:17, Cameron J. (G),
2nd Quarter (32 - 22)
00:48, Bailey Z. (G),
02:08, Rayner C. (Behind),
03:13, Cameron C. (G),
10:21, Cameron J. (Behind),
11:39, Morris L. (G),
14:22, Henry O. (Behind),
15:03, (Behind Rushed),
15:59, Cameron C. (G),
18:41, Henry O. (G),
20:03, Ashcroft L. (G),
21:52, Dempsey O. (Behind),
23:04, Morris L. (Behind),
24:36, Neale S. (G),
29:39, Smith B. (G),
3rd Quarter (21 - 38)
02:39, Morris L. (Behind),
04:20, Mullin O. (G),
05:36, Mannagh S. (G),
08:13, Mannagh S. (G),
09:26, Mannagh S. (G),
11:33, Henry O. (G),
15:46, Humphries L. (Behind),
17:43, Draper S. (G),
22:06, Cameron J. (G),
24:16, Cameron C. (G),
29:13, Morris L. (G),
30:40, Dempsey O. (Behind),
31:24, Lohmann K. (Behind),
33:29, McKenna C. (Behind),
4th Quarter (10 - 22)
01:24, Neale S. (Behind),
02:05, Cameron J. (G),
03:40, Rayner C. (Behind),
05:55, Mullin O. (Behind),
08:37, Neale S. (G),
13:22, Mannagh S. (G),
14:59, McKenna C. (G),
18:35, Fletcher J. (Behind),
20:35, Neale S. (Behind),
21:32, (Behind Rushed),
23:16, Dangerfield P. (Behind),
26:40, Rayner C. (Behind),
Preview
One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ AFL (Play Offs: ) and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ AFL (Play Offs: )).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Brisbane won 4.
Now, both teams are in good form.
Recently, Geelong has had a series of home games.
Brisbane is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
We predict that Brisbane will win today's game, with odds of 1.43.
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Brisbane won 8 matches, drew 1 match, lost 11 matches, and goals 1382:1642. (average 69.1:82.1).
Including home matches between the teams, Brisbane won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 620:720. (average 62:72).
Australia
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