Match Info

AFL - Round 8

Date: 1 May 2026, Friday

Location: Marvel Stadium (Melbourne)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	AFL


	Essendon Bombers		Brisbane Lions

	1	2
	9.5	1.06
	6.5	1.08
			Watch
	6.8	1.07
Avarage Now (Initially)	7.6 ↑ (5)	1.07 ↓ (1.18)

The most likely Over/Under: 181.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-47)

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Essendon Bombers
12.3%

Brisbane Lions
87.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

19.1%

80.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Essendon Bombers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Essendon Bombers's form might have worsened.

Brisbane Lions has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Brisbane Lions's recent form is better than expected.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Essendon Bombers - Brisbane Lions Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Brisbane will win (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 68:115

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Key Events of the Match

1st Quarter (9 - 38)
00:57, Bailey Z. (G),
03:36, Cameron C. (G),
04:55, Morris L. (Behind),
05:55, Caddy N. (Behind),
08:02, Wright P. (G),
10:35, Bailey Z. (G),
13:20, McKenna C. (G),
16:04, Rayner C. (G),
18:55, Morris L. (G),
25:52, (Behind Rushed),
28:07, Langford K. (Behind),
29:31, Lohmann K. (Behind),
2nd Quarter (23 - 27)
00:53, Caddy N. (G),
02:09, (Behind Rushed),
02:45, Morris L. (Behind),
04:26, Caddy N. (Behind),
07:22, Morris L. (G),
11:04, Langford K. (Behind),
13:57, McCluggage H. (Behind),
14:56, Lohmann K. (Behind),
15:34, Morris L. (G),
17:40, Blakiston L. (G),
19:23, Neale L. (G),
21:45, Wright P. (Behind),
22:42, Caddy N. (G),
25:22, Wilmot D. (G),
27:21, Nguyen J. (Behind),
3rd Quarter (9 - 45)
00:14, McCluggage H. (Behind),
01:00, (Behind Rushed),
03:06, Bailey Z. (G),
04:23, Rayner C. (G),
05:37, Lohmann K. (G),
07:49, Caddy N. (Behind),
09:41, Caddy N. (Behind),
11:16, McCluggage H. (G),
15:21, Lohmann K. (G),
18:35, Lohmann K. (G),
21:10, Cameron C. (Behind),
23:58, Edwards T. (G),
25:39, Bailey Z. (G),
28:16, Merrett Z. (Behind),
4th Quarter (38 - 33)
00:48, Caddy N. (Behind),
01:14, Merrett Z. (G),
03:32, (Behind Rushed),
07:09, Robey S. (G),
10:28, Wright P. (G),
11:40, Curtin C. (Behind),
13:39, Reville B. (G),
15:09, Morris L. (Behind),
17:11, Caddy N. (G),
18:31, McKenna C. (G),
20:32, Langford K. (G),
22:09, Morris L. (G),
23:56, Lohmann K. (G),
25:06, Cameron C. (G),
27:31, Cox N. (G),
31:40, Curtin C. (Behind),

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 17 and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ AFL (Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Essendon won 1.

Essendon is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Brisbane is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

In this match, Brisbane is the obvious favorite.

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Essendon won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 1199:1304. (average 74.9:81.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Essendon won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 610:645. (average 76.3:80.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Essendon Bombers
AFL
25.04.26	Essendon Bombers - Collingwood Magpies	60:137 ✺
17.04.26	Gold Coast Suns - Essendon Bombers	119:110 ✺
10.04.26	Essendon Bombers - Melbourne Demons	113:68 ✺
05.04.26	Western Bulldogs - Essendon Bombers	99:65 ✺
28.03.26	Essendon Bombers - North Melbourne Kangaroos	69:81 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 LLWLL
- Brisbane Lions
AFL
26.04.26	Brisbane Lions - Adelaide Crows	127:75 ✺
19.04.26	Melbourne Demons - Brisbane Lions	104:102 ✺
10.04.26	North Melbourne Kangaroos - Brisbane Lions	66:92 ✺
02.04.26	Brisbane Lions - Collingwood Magpies	119:65 ✺
27.03.26	St Kilda Saints - Brisbane Lions	80:113 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

AFL
29.05.25	Brisbane Lions - Essendon Bombers	90:72
24.08.24	Brisbane Lions - Essendon Bombers	87:67
13.05.23	Brisbane Lions - Essendon Bombers	87:45
09.07.22	Brisbane Lions - Essendon Bombers	90:100
26.03.22	Essendon Bombers - Brisbane Lions	75:97
17.04.21	Brisbane Lions - Essendon Bombers	102:45
31.07.20	Essendon Bombers - Brisbane Lions	28:91

Essendon Bombers - Brisbane Lions: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide