Match Info

AFL - Round 11

Date: 23 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Engie Stadium (Sydney)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	AFL, Fox Footy
United-kingdom	TNT Sports 1
Usa	FOX Sports 2


	Greater Western Sydney Giants		Brisbane Lions

	1	2
	2.55	1.52
	2.4	1.5
			Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.48 ↓ (2.55)	1.51 ↓ (1.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 186.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-15)

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Greater Western Sydney Giants
37.9%

Brisbane Lions
62.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

37.3%

62.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.5%

58.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Greater Western Sydney Giants has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

Brisbane Lions has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Greater Western Sydney Giants than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Brisbane Lions than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Greater Western Sydney Giants - Brisbane Lions Predictions

Users Predictions: 1 users predict this event. Brisbane will win (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 86:101

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Key Events of the Match

1st Quarter (38 - 32)
01:19, McKenna C. (G),
03:53, Greene T. (G),
05:37, Riccardi J. (G),
06:48, Gruzewski M. (Behind),
07:24, Rayner C. (G),
09:22, Stringer J. (G),
12:33, McLachlan W. (G),
15:11, Rayner C. (G),
17:33, Gruzewski M. (G),
19:41, Cameron C. (G),
23:55, (Behind Rushed),
25:13, McKenna C. (Behind),
25:56, Bedford T. (G),
28:47, Rayner C. (Behind),
29:24, Brown C. (G),
2nd Quarter (21 - 21)
03:00, Neale L. (G),
06:03, Gruzewski M. (Behind),
10:36, Riccardi J. (G),
13:00, Morris L. (Behind),
14:27, Stringer J. (Behind),
15:18, Morris L. (Behind),
15:52, (Behind Rushed),
16:08, Cameron C. (G),
22:26, Cadman A. (G),
24:11, Gruzewski M. (G),
26:47, Stringer J. (Behind),
27:46, Lohmann K. (G),
3rd Quarter (86 - 3)
00:27, Gothard P. (G),
02:14, Stringer J. (G),
04:35, Cadman A. (G),
05:47, Daniels B. (G),
07:36, Gothard P. (G),
10:50, Greene T. (G),
12:52, Cadman A. (G),
14:57, Stringer J. (Behind),
15:27, (Behind Rushed),
16:00, Dunkley J. (Behind),
17:06, Gruzewski M. (G),
19:05, Lohmann K. (Behind),
21:22, Greene T. (G),
23:14, Stringer J. (G),
26:08, Daniels B. (G),
28:45, Greene T. (G),
30:00, Greene T. (G),
33:18, Stringer J. (G),
36:44, Cameron C. (Behind),
4th Quarter (21 - 32)
00:21, McKenna C. (Behind),
02:28, Morris L. (G),
03:42, Rayner C. (G),
06:34, Stringer J. (Behind),
07:49, Gruzewski M. (Behind),
13:09, Lohmann K. (G),
14:36, McKenna C. (G),
16:14, Bailey Z. (Behind),
17:45, Brown C. (G),
21:42, Stringer J. (G),
23:05, Cadman A. (Behind),
24:06, Callaghan F. (G),
27:26, Lohmann K. (G),

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 13 and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ AFL (Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, GWS won 3.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Brisbane may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Brisbane could have a small edge in this match.

We predict that Brisbane will win today's game, with odds of 1.52.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, GWS won 11 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 1916:1763. (average 95.8:88.2).

Including home matches between the teams, GWS won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 772:763. (average 85.8:84.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Greater Western Sydney Giants
AFL
17.05.26	West Coast Eagles - Greater Western Sydney Giants	88:71 ✺
09.05.26	Greater Western Sydney Giants - Essendon Bombers	103:89 ✺
03.05.26	Gold Coast Suns - Greater Western Sydney Giants	83:63 ✺
26.04.26	Greater Western Sydney Giants - North Melbourne Kangaroos	105:98 ✺
17.04.26	Sydney Swans - Greater Western Sydney Giants	107:66 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 LWLWL
- Brisbane Lions
AFL
14.05.26	Brisbane Lions - Geelong Cats	76:117 ✺
08.05.26	Brisbane Lions - Carlton Blues	100:89 ✺
01.05.26	Essendon Bombers - Brisbane Lions	79:143 ✺
26.04.26	Brisbane Lions - Adelaide Crows	127:75 ✺
19.04.26	Melbourne Demons - Brisbane Lions	104:102 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LWWWL

Latest Head to Head

AFL
13.06.25	Brisbane Lions - Greater Western Sydney Giants	96:107
14.09.24	Greater Western Sydney Giants - Brisbane Lions	100:105
09.08.24	Brisbane Lions - Greater Western Sydney Giants	64:82
25.04.24	Greater Western Sydney Giants - Brisbane Lions	113:59
22.04.23	Greater Western Sydney Giants - Brisbane Lions	87:108
15.07.22	Greater Western Sydney Giants - Brisbane Lions	59:99
27.05.22	Brisbane Lions - Greater Western Sydney Giants	110:96

Greater Western Sydney Giants - Brisbane Lions: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide