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Current Win Probability
Western Bulldogs 26.8%
Carlton Blues 73.2%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
47.6%
52.4%
Our Initial ML Estimation
48.8%
51.2%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Western Bulldogs has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-20.8%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Western Bulldogs's form might have worsened.
Carlton Blues has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+20.8%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Carlton Blues's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Western Bulldogs than the current prediction. (+22%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Western Bulldogs, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Carlton Blues than the current prediction. (-22%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Carlton Blues, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
66.7%
0%
33.3%
Western Bulldogs - Carlton Blues Predictions
Users Predictions:
3 users predict this event. Western will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Carlton will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%).
Expected Score (Market Odds): 76:96
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Key Events of the Match
1st Quarter (20 - 33)
01:24, McGovern M. (Behind),
02:25, Freijah J. (G),
05:21, Davidson S. (G),
06:58, McGovern M. (G),
08:40, McKay H. (Behind),
10:44, Naughton A. (Behind),
13:09, McKay H. (G),
15:23, Kennedy L. (Behind),
17:53, (Behind Rushed),
19:55, Lord C. (G),
22:39, Pittonet M. (G),
25:48, Hayward W. (G),
28:08, Jones A. (G),
2nd Quarter (26 - 8)
06:23, (Behind Rushed),
07:52, Hayward W. (G),
10:29, Weightman C. (Behind),
12:04, Weightman C. (G),
17:26, Croft J. (G),
20:56, Freijah J. (G),
22:09, Kennedy L. (G),
26:25, Dolan J. (Behind),
27:55, Cripps P. (Behind),
3rd Quarter (16 - 26)
00:20, Jones A. (Behind),
03:21, Acres B. (G),
04:46, Richards E. (G),
08:22, Hayward W. (G),
13:38, (Behind Rushed),
14:47, McKay H. (G),
16:22, Naughton A. (Behind),
17:16, Dolan J. (G),
25:48, Kemp B. (G),
27:39, Jones A. (Behind),
29:04, Cripps P. (Behind),
30:43, Jones A. (Behind),
4th Quarter (20 - 15)
03:41, McGovern M. (Behind),
05:30, Evans F. (G),
07:49, Williams B. (G),
09:28, West R. (G),
14:05, (Behind Rushed),
15:57, Bramble L. (Behind),
18:24, Naughton A. (Behind),
20:12, Richards E. (G),
21:43, Ainsworth B. (Behind),
24:56, Derksen W. (G),
Preview
This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 9 in the zone Promotion ~ AFL (Play Offs: ) and 10 in the zone Promotion ~ AFL (Play Offs: )).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Western won 3.
The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.
Western may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
In this match, Carlton is considered a favorite.
In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Western won 12 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 1317:1271. (average 77.5:74.8).
Including home matches between the teams, Western won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 589:611. (average 73.6:76.4).
Last Results with these Odds
Carlton Blues - the odds 1.82 are the expected chance of winning is 52.36%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.