Match Info

AFL - Round 21

Date: 1 August 2026, Saturday

Location: Marvel Stadium (Melbourne)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SupeSport ESPN 2
Australia	AFL TV, Fox Footy, Fox Sports 503
Canada	fubo Sports Network
New-zealand	Sky Sport Select
South-africa	SupeSport ESPN 2
United-kingdom	HBO Max, TNT Sports 5


	Carlton Blues		Brisbane Lions

	1	2
	3.25	1.35
	3.3	1.28
			Watch
	3.5	1.29
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.35 ↑ (3.03)	1.31 ↓ (1.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 177.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-21)

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Carlton Blues
28.1%

Brisbane Lions
71.9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

31%

69%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.5%

77.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Carlton Blues has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

Brisbane Lions has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Carlton Blues than the current prediction. (-5.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Carlton Blues that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Brisbane Lions than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Brisbane Lions could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	0%	80%

Carlton Blues - Brisbane Lions Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Carlton will win (votes: 1 - 20%). Brisbane will win (votes: 4 - 80%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 79:100

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Key Events of the Match

1st Quarter (39 - 35)
02:27, McKay H. (G),
03:56, Rayner C. (Behind),
06:46, Morris L. (Behind),
07:23, McCluggage H. (G),
09:19, Pittonet M. (G),
11:00, Allen O. (G),
12:40, Young L. (G),
14:57, (Behind Rushed),
15:30, Lohmann K. (G),
17:26, Dunkley J. (Behind),
21:06, Bailey Z. (G),
22:57, Evans F. (G),
24:20, Draper S. (G),
26:31, (Behind Rushed),
28:14, Kemp B. (G),
30:42, Kemp B. (G),
32:34, Morris L. (Behind),
33:46, Walsh S. (Behind),
34:11, Byrne T. (Behind),
2nd Quarter (40 - 26)
02:26, Cameron C. (Behind),
04:17, (Behind Rushed),
05:30, (Behind Rushed),
06:49, Kemp B. (G),
12:19, Kemp B. (G),
13:57, Cottrell M. (G),
16:56, Hayward W. (G),
18:27, Evans F. (Behind),
19:53, Lohmann K. (G),
21:15, Smith J. (G),
23:44, Dean H. (G),
25:44, Cameron C. (G),
27:28, Cottrell M. (Behind),
29:51, Ashcroft L. (G),
31:07, Ashcroft W. (G),
32:37, (Behind Rushed),
3rd Quarter (38 - 14)
00:56, Byrne T. (G),
02:44, Ainsworth B. (G),
04:28, Rayner C. (G),
08:12, Ainsworth B. (Behind),
09:08, Florent O. (G),
10:55, McKay H. (Behind),
12:29, Lohmann K. (Behind),
17:11, Rayner C. (Behind),
18:46, McKay H. (G),
20:50, Cameron C. (G),
22:10, Hewett G. (G),
30:43, McGovern M. (G),
4th Quarter (37 - 3)
04:41, Kemp B. (G),
07:21, Allen O. (Behind),
11:28, Smith J. (G),
13', Ashcroft L. (Behind),
15:44, Acres B. (G),
18:03, Byrne T. (G),
20:12, Walsh S. (G),
22:40, Kemp B. (Behind),
24:12, Cameron C. (Behind),
27:10, McKay H. (G),

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 11 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ AFL (Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Carlton won 1.

Carlton has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Brisbane is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).

In this match, Brisbane is seen as the favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Carlton won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 16 matches, and goals 1554:1937. (average 77.7:96.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Carlton won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 615:737. (average 76.9:92.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Carlton Blues
AFL
24.07.26	Carlton Blues - Gold Coast Suns	110:97 ✺
18.07.26	Collingwood Magpies - Carlton Blues	90:69 ✺
11.07.26	Carlton Blues - Hawthorn Hawks	39:103 ✺
04.07.26	Richmond Tigers - Carlton Blues	72:74 ✺
26.06.26	Carlton Blues - West Coast Eagles	117:64 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 WLLWW
- Brisbane Lions
AFL
25.07.26	Brisbane Lions - Port Adelaide Power	126:67 ✺
18.07.26	West Coast Eagles - Brisbane Lions	69:93 ✺
12.07.26	Brisbane Lions - Essendon Bombers	149:59 ✺
02.07.26	Geelong Cats - Brisbane Lions	101:123 ✺
25.06.26	Brisbane Lions - Sydney Swans	126:83 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

AFL
08.05.26	Brisbane Lions - Carlton Blues	100:89
10.07.25	Carlton Blues - Brisbane Lions	66:103
07.09.24	Brisbane Lions - Carlton Blues	99:71
08.03.24	Brisbane Lions - Carlton Blues	85:86
23.09.23	Brisbane Lions - Carlton Blues	79:63
05.05.23	Carlton Blues - Brisbane Lions	74:100
07.08.22	Brisbane Lions - Carlton Blues	114:81

Carlton Blues - Brisbane Lions: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide