Match Info

AFL - Round 19

Date: 18 July 2026, Saturday

Location: Melbourne Cricket Ground (Melbourne)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SupeSport ESPN 1
Australia	AFL TV
United-kingdom	HBO Max, TNT Sports 3


	Collingwood Magpies		Carlton Blues

	1	X	2
	1.7		2.18
	1.62	100.00	2.15
				Watch
	1.65	90.00	2.21
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.66 ↓ (1.75)	63.33	2.18 ↑ (2.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 163.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-5)

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Collingwood Magpies
56%

Draw
1.5%

Carlton Blues
42.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

54.5%

45.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.3%

44.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Collingwood Magpies has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

Carlton Blues has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Collingwood Magpies than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Carlton Blues than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Collingwood Magpies - Carlton Blues Predictions

Users Predictions: 2 users predict this event. Collingwood will win (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 85:80

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Key Events of the Match

1st Quarter (18 - 16)
01:53, Kemp B. (Behind),
02:59, McStay D. (G),
04:53, Ainsworth B. (Behind),
05:58, McStay D. (G),
09:59, Membrey T. (G),
15:06, Byrne T. (Behind),
19:45, Kemp B. (G),
21:29, Ainsworth B. (G),
29:08, Florent O. (Behind),
2nd Quarter (20 - 14)
03:42, Smith J. (G),
07:43, Cottrell M. (Behind),
10:01, West C. (Behind),
12:49, West C. (G),
15:46, McGovern M. (G),
17:38, McCreery B. (G),
19:56, De Goey J. (G),
24:53, Houston D. (Behind),
25:36, Hayward W. (Behind),
3rd Quarter (32 - 26)
02:57, McCreery B. (G),
06:27, McStay D. (Behind),
10:34, McGovern M. (G),
11:42, Evans F. (Behind),
13:33, Ainsworth B. (G),
15:23, Walsh S. (G),
18:46, Membrey T. (G),
20:17, Long N. (G),
22:57, Swadling S. (G),
26:26, Cripps P. (G),
27:37, McCreery B. (Behind),
28:38, Hayward W. (Behind),
30:04, Membrey T. (G),
4th Quarter (20 - 13)
05:39, Kemp B. (Behind),
09:47, Houston D. (G),
12:19, Anderson A. (G),
13:58, Cripps P. (G),
19:34, Pendlebury S. (Behind),
21:31, Anderson A. (Behind),
24:04, Cottrell M. (G),
25:55, Long N. (G),

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 9 in the zone Promotion ~ AFL (Play Offs: ) and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Collingwood won 5.

Currently, both teams are in excellent shape.

Carlton may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Collingwood has had a series of home games.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

We predict that Collingwood will win today's game, with odds of 1.66.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Collingwood won 16 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 1654:1476. (average 82.7:73.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Collingwood won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 765:783. (average 76.5:78.3).

Last Results with these Odds

Collingwood Magpies - the odds 1.75 are the expected chance of winning is 54.55%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Collingwood Magpies
AFL
10.07.26	Collingwood Magpies - North Melbourne Kangaroos	89:85 ✺
04.07.26	Gold Coast Suns - Collingwood Magpies	98:104 ✺
27.06.26	Collingwood Magpies - Richmond Tigers	106:72 ✺
20.06.26	Collingwood Magpies - Port Adelaide Power	78:51 ✺
08.06.26	Collingwood Magpies - Melbourne Demons	75:83 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 WWWWL
- Carlton Blues
AFL
11.07.26	Carlton Blues - Hawthorn Hawks	39:103 ✺
04.07.26	Richmond Tigers - Carlton Blues	72:74 ✺
26.06.26	Carlton Blues - West Coast Eagles	117:64 ✺
20.06.26	Greater Western Sydney Giants - Carlton Blues	65:88 ✺
07.06.26	Essendon Bombers - Carlton Blues	67:72 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

AFL
16.04.26	Carlton Blues - Collingwood Magpies	83:88
04.07.25	Carlton Blues - Collingwood Magpies	59:115
03.04.25	Collingwood Magpies - Carlton Blues	63:46
03.08.24	Collingwood Magpies - Carlton Blues	84:81
03.05.24	Carlton Blues - Collingwood Magpies	79:85
28.07.23	Collingwood Magpies - Carlton Blues	76:93
21.05.23	Carlton Blues - Collingwood Magpies	57:85

Collingwood Magpies - Carlton Blues: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide