Match Info

AFL Women - Round 4

Date: 6 September 2026, Sunday

Location: GMHBA Stadium (Geelong)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	HBO Max, TNT Sports 3


	Geelong Cats		Essendon Bombers

	1	X	2
	1.11		6.5
	1.1		5.8
	1.11		6.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.11 ↑ (1.1)	↓	6.23 ↑ (6)

The most likely Over/Under: 95.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-25)

The best margin for this event is 5.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Geelong Cats
84.9%

Essendon Bombers
15.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

83.7%

0.9%

15.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Geelong Cats has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

Essendon Bombers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

Geelong Cats - Essendon Bombers Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 61:36

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Key Events of the Match

1st Quarter (7 - 13)
2nd Quarter (38 - 14)
3rd Quarter (20 - 9)
4th Quarter (18 - 15)

Preview

Geelong may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Geelong is the undeniable favorite.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Geelong won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 171:117. (average 42.8:29.3).

Including home match between the teams, Geelong won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 51:33.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		%%	Pts
2	Geelong Cats W	10	9	0	1	719:430	167.21	36
17	Essendon Bombers W	10	1	0	9	328:590	55.59	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Geelong Cats Women
AFL Women
30.08.26	Gold Coast Suns - Geelong Cats	57:64 ✺
22.08.26	Geelong Cats - St Kilda Saints	100:15 ✺
14.08.26	North Melbourne Kangaroos - Geelong Cats	100:27 ✺
01.11.25	Geelong Cats - Melbourne Demons	45:59 ✺
25.10.25	Western Bulldogs - Geelong Cats	26:37 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 WWLLW
- Essendon Bombers Women
AFL Women
30.08.26	Essendon Bombers - Richmond Tigers	33:38 ✺
22.08.26	Sydney Swans - Essendon Bombers	66:42 ✺
15.08.26	Essendon Bombers - Brisbane Lions	37:85 ✺
01.11.25	Sydney Swans - Essendon Bombers	11:14 ✺
25.10.25	Essendon Bombers - Hawthorn Hawks	26:56 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

AFL Women
07.09.25	Essendon Bombers - Geelong Cats	27:58
11.11.23	Geelong Cats - Essendon Bombers	51:33
07.10.23	Essendon Bombers - Geelong Cats	29:19
08.10.22	Essendon Bombers - Geelong Cats	28:43

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