Match Info

AFL - Round 20

Date: 24 July 2025, Thursday

Location: Melbourne Cricket Ground (Melbourne)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SupeSport ESPN 1
Australia	AFL, Fox Footy
United-kingdom	TNT Sports 2


	Hawthorn Hawks		Carlton Blues

	1	2
	1.22	4.5
	1.19	4.04
			Watch
	1.2	4.33
	1.21	4.13
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.21 ↑ (1.21)	4.25 ↓ (4.51)

The most likely Over/Under: 159.00

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-26)

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hawthorn Hawks
77.9%

Carlton Blues
22.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

78.9%

21.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hawthorn Hawks has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

Carlton Blues has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

Hawthorn Hawks - Carlton Blues Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 93:67

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Key Events of the Match

1st Quarter (37 - 8)
01:12, Ginnivan J. (G),
07:39, Gunston J. (Behind),
08:59, Lewis M. (G),
11:27, Macdonald C. (G),
15:36, Ward J. (G),
23:27, Durdin C. (G),
24:44, McKay H. (Behind),
26:25, Gunston J. (G),
30:32, Curnow C. (Behind),
32:21, Dear C. (G),
2nd Quarter (14 - 13)
02:09, Watson N. (G),
04:35, Docherty S. (Behind),
08:04, Morrison H. (G),
13:12, Curnow C. (G),
19:26, Dear C. (Behind),
23:33, (Behind Rushed),
26:30, White W. (G),
3rd Quarter (25 - 25)
00:48, Gunston J. (G),
02:52, Dear C. (G),
04:05, Curnow C. (G),
07:03, Lewis M. (Behind),
08:45, Watson N. (G),
10:42, White W. (G),
15:48, Motlop J. (G),
24:51, Gunston J. (G),
29:17, Docherty S. (G),
31:31, Docherty S. (Behind),
4th Quarter (9 - 15)
03:05, Lewis M. (G),
05:28, Dear C. (Behind),
06:46, Cerra A. (G),
08:39, Hewett G. (Behind),
09:50, (Behind Rushed),
19:20, Impey J. (Behind),
20:23, Impey J. (Behind),
21:34, Williams Z. (Behind),
24:03, McKay H. (G),

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ AFL (Play Offs: ) and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hawthorn won 2.

Hawthorn is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Carlton is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Recently, Carlton has had a series of home games.

In this match, Hawthorn is a strong favorite.

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Hawthorn won 11 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 1486:1102. (average 87.4:64.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Hawthorn won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 482:445. (average 80.3:74.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hawthorn Hawks
AFL
18.07.25	Hawthorn Hawks - Port Adelaide Power	87:49 ✺
12.07.25	Fremantle Dockers - Hawthorn Hawks	77:64 ✺
05.07.25	St Kilda Saints - Hawthorn Hawks	74:94 ✺
28.06.25	Hawthorn Hawks - North Melbourne Kangaroos	150:65 ✺
13.06.25	Hawthorn Hawks - Adelaide Crows	47:44 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 WLWWW
- Carlton Blues
AFL
19.07.25	Carlton Blues - Melbourne Demons	78:70 ✺
10.07.25	Carlton Blues - Brisbane Lions	66:103 ✺
04.07.25	Carlton Blues - Collingwood Magpies	59:115 ✺
26.06.25	Port Adelaide Power - Carlton Blues	110:60 ✺
20.06.25	Carlton Blues - North Melbourne Kangaroos	73:84 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 WLLLL

Latest Head to Head

AFL
20.03.25	Carlton Blues - Hawthorn Hawks	60:80
10.08.24	Carlton Blues - Hawthorn Hawks	38:112
01.07.23	Hawthorn Hawks - Carlton Blues	52:112
02.04.22	Carlton Blues - Hawthorn Hawks	74:73
21.05.21	Carlton Blues - Hawthorn Hawks	86:63
31.07.20	Carlton Blues - Hawthorn Hawks	58:89
28.04.19	Hawthorn Hawks - Carlton Blues	93:88

Hawthorn Hawks - Carlton Blues: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide