Match Info

AFL - Round 12

Date: 28 May 2026, Thursday

Location: Marvel Stadium (Melbourne)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	AFL, Fox Footy
Usa	Fox Soccer Plus, FOX Sports 2


	St Kilda Saints		Hawthorn Hawks

	1	2
	3.5	1.31
	2.8	1.38
			Watch
	2.95	1.39
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.08 ↑ (2.55)	1.36 ↓ (1.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 178.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-20)

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

St Kilda Saints
30.6%

Hawthorn Hawks
69.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

37.3%

62.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.9%

59.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

St Kilda Saints has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that St Kilda Saints's form might have worsened.

Hawthorn Hawks has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Hawthorn Hawks's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for St Kilda Saints than the current prediction. (+10.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for St Kilda Saints, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hawthorn Hawks than the current prediction. (-10.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Hawthorn Hawks, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
8.3%	0%	91.7%

St Kilda Saints - Hawthorn Hawks Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Hawthorn (votes: 2 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Hawthorn Hawks will win (11 of 12 users predict this - 91.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 76.03% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 79:99

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Key Events of the Match

1st Quarter (2 - 20)
03:12, Gunston J. (G),
05:44, Gunston J. (G),
08:16, Lewis M. (Behind),
14:04, Phillipou M. (Behind),
16:10, Battle J. (Behind),
17:22, Chol M. (G),
20:31, Phillipou M. (Behind),
2nd Quarter (3 - 35)
00:15, Gunston J. (G),
04:35, Ginnivan J. (G),
06:18, Lewis M. (G),
08:10, Gunston J. (Behind),
10:44, Henry L. (Behind),
14:21, Day W. (Behind),
15:24, Gunston J. (Behind),
18:33, Lewis M. (Behind),
20:02, Caminiti A. (Behind),
22:40, Gunston J. (G),
24:56, Lewis M. (G),
27:14, (Behind Rushed),
28:19, Hall M. (Behind),
3rd Quarter (38 - 34)
01:57, Silvagni J. (G),
03:42, Chol M. (G),
05:29, De Koning T. (G),
08:30, Silvagni J. (Behind),
09:20, Wilson D. (G),
10:45, Watson N. (G),
13:22, Lewis M. (Behind),
13:57, Lewis M. (G),
18:11, Gunston J. (Behind),
19:09, Silvagni J. (G),
22:16, Tauru A. (G),
24:18, Ward J. (Behind),
24:30, Gunston J. (G),
26:14, Marshall R. (G),
27:18, Sinclair J. (Behind),
30:51, Macdonald C. (G),
33:48, Watson N. (Behind),
4th Quarter (24 - 30)
03:02, De Koning T. (G),
04:24, (Behind Rushed),
05:13, Hardwick B. (G),
06:57, (Behind Rushed),
09:00, Windhager M. (Behind),
10:27, Windhager M. (G),
14:41, Silvagni J. (Behind),
15:19, Hardwick B. (G),
17:04, Silvagni J. (G),
19:26, Watson N. (G),
22:21, Silvagni J. (Behind),
23:44, Hardwick B. (G),
28:22, Garcia H. (Behind),
29:47, Hardwick B. (G),

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 11 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ AFL (Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, St Kilda won 2.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

In this match, Hawthorn is considered a favorite.

We predict that Hawthorn will win today's game, with odds of 1.38.

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, St Kilda won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 1475:1618. (average 77.6:85.2).

Including home matches between the teams, St Kilda won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 860:988. (average 71.7:82.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- St Kilda Saints
AFL
22.05.26	Fremantle Dockers - St Kilda Saints	104:74 ✺
17.05.26	St Kilda Saints - Richmond Tigers	109:73 ✺
09.05.26	Gold Coast Suns - St Kilda Saints	89:60 ✺
02.05.26	Carlton Blues - St Kilda Saints	69:108 ✺
25.04.26	St Kilda Saints - West Coast Eagles	143:42 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 LWLWW
- Hawthorn Hawks
AFL
21.05.26	Hawthorn Hawks - Adelaide Crows	75:66 ✺
16.05.26	Melbourne Demons - Hawthorn Hawks	120:81 ✺
07.05.26	Fremantle Dockers - Hawthorn Hawks	88:73 ✺
30.04.26	Collingwood Magpies - Hawthorn Hawks	93:93 ✺
24.04.26	Hawthorn Hawks - Gold Coast Suns	112:63 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 WLLTW

Latest Head to Head

AFL
05.07.25	St Kilda Saints - Hawthorn Hawks	74:94
10.05.24	Hawthorn Hawks - St Kilda Saints	58:53
29.07.23	Hawthorn Hawks - St Kilda Saints	93:122
26.05.23	St Kilda Saints - Hawthorn Hawks	78:88
30.07.22	St Kilda Saints - Hawthorn Hawks	75:63
10.04.22	Hawthorn Hawks - St Kilda Saints	73:142
01.05.21	St Kilda Saints - Hawthorn Hawks	128:59

St Kilda Saints - Hawthorn Hawks: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide