The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Melbourne Demons 34.2%
Hawthorn Hawks 65.8%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
26.5%
73.5%
Our Initial ML Estimation
27.6%
72.4%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Melbourne Demons has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.7%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Melbourne Demons's performance.
Hawthorn Hawks has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.7%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Hawthorn Hawks might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Melbourne Demons than the current prediction. (-6.6%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Melbourne Demons that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hawthorn Hawks than the current prediction. (+6.6%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Hawthorn Hawks could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Melbourne Demons - Hawthorn Hawks Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 84:97
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Key Events of the Match
1st Quarter (21 - 21)
01:31, Lewis M. (Behind),
04:09, Petty H. (G),
06:51, Gawn M. (Behind),
07:53, Petty H. (G),
09:33, Sparrow T. (Behind),
13:36, Lewis M. (G),
16:20, Dear C. (Behind),
17:54, Dear C. (Behind),
19:54, Moore D. (G),
22:36, Van Rooyen J. (G),
26:18, Jefferson M. (Behind),
28:24, Watson N. (G),
2nd Quarter (21 - 15)
06:15, Pickett K. (G),
07:35, Petty H. (G),
09:26, (Behind Rushed),
10:34, (Behind Rushed),
12:55, (Behind Rushed),
17:46, Ramsden M. (G),
20:11, (Behind Rushed),
24:56, Weddle J. (G),
27:11, Langford H. (G),
28:37, Pickett L. (Behind),
30:40, Jefferson M. (Behind),
3rd Quarter (38 - 24)
04:38, Jefferson M. (G),
08:12, Laurie B. (G),
10:08, Langdon E. (G),
11:52, Lewis M. (G),
16:28, Morrison H. (G),
18:18, Fritsch B. (G),
19:50, Jefferson M. (G),
22:54, Watson N. (G),
24:18, (Behind Rushed),
27:18, Fritsch B. (Behind),
28:43, Macdonald C. (G),
30:05, Langford H. (G),
4th Quarter (40 - 21)
00:21, Chandler K. (G),
03:21, Sharp H. (Behind),
05:49, Petty H. (Behind),
08:12, Ginnivan J. (Behind),
09:33, Pickett K. (G),
10:46, Sharp H. (G),
12:00, Van Rooyen J. (G),
16:00, Sharp H. (G),
17:55, Moore D. (G),
20:27, Fritsch B. (G),
22:16, D'Ambrosio M. (G),
23:57, Sparrow T. (Behind),
25:20, Watson N. (G),
27:24, Amon K. (Behind),
28:23, Watson N. (Behind),
30:20, Steele J. (Behind),
Preview
The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ AFL (Play Offs: ) and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ AFL (Play Offs: ))
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Melbourne won 3.
Melbourne has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).
Hawthorn is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
Melbourne may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
Hawthorn might have a minor edge in this game.
We predict that Hawthorn will win today's game, with odds of 1.41.
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Melbourne won 11 matches, drew 1 match, lost 8 matches, and goals 1500:1571. (average 75:78.6).
Including home matches between the teams, Melbourne won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 641:703. (average 71.2:78.1).
Australia
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