Match Info

AFL - Round 11

Date: 25 May 2025, Sunday

Location: Melbourne Cricket Ground (Melbourne)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	AFL, Fox Footy, Seven Network
United-kingdom	TNT Sports 4


	Melbourne Demons		Sydney Swans

	1	2
	1.87	1.97
	1.82	1.86
	1.96	1.8	Watch
	1.83	1.83
	1.82	1.93
	1.82	1.86
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.85 ↓ (2.24)	1.88 ↑ (1.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 167.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-1)

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Melbourne Demons
50.3%

Sydney Swans
49.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

42.3%

57.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.9%

55.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Melbourne Demons has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Melbourne Demons's performance.

Sydney Swans has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Sydney Swans might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Melbourne Demons than the current prediction. (-5.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Melbourne Demons that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sydney Swans than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Sydney Swans could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	0%	50%

Melbourne Demons - Sydney Swans Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Melbourne will win (votes: 2 - 50%). Sydney will win (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 85:85

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Key Events of the Match

1st Quarter (21 - 13)
01:42, Gawn M. (G),
09:17, (Behind Rushed),
14:59, Fritsch B. (Behind),
15:46, Pickett K. (G),
18:23, Ladhams P. (G),
20:44, Melksham J. (G),
22:31, (Behind Rushed),
24:49, (Behind Rushed),
27:29, Ladhams P. (G),
2nd Quarter (26 - 12)
00:37, Langford H. (Behind),
02:31, Heeney I. (G),
04:28, Petracca C. (G),
06:43, Petracca C. (Behind),
07:50, Sparrow T. (G),
10:34, Hamling J. (G),
13:51, Salem C. (Behind),
17:25, Pickett K. (G),
19:17, Chandler K. (Behind),
19:55, Pickett K. (Behind),
22:08, Melksham J. (Behind),
23:36, Pickett K. (Behind),
28:22, Melksham J. (Behind),
3rd Quarter (34 - 20)
00:29, Pickett K. (G),
02:25, Blakey N. (G),
06:24, Gawn M. (Behind),
07:41, (Behind Rushed),
09:44, Hayward W. (G),
11:27, Cleary C. (Behind),
15:35, Hayward W. (Behind),
17:32, Pickett K. (G),
20:40, Fritsch B. (G),
22:31, Salem C. (G),
24:54, Pickett K. (Behind),
26:52, Pickett K. (G),
28:24, Petracca C. (Behind),
30:33, Campbell B. (G),
4th Quarter (50 - 33)
00:55, Heeney I. (G),
02:44, Petty H. (G),
04:35, Pickett K. (Behind),
05:36, Mills C. (G),
08:25, Cleary C. (Behind),
09:13, Sharp H. (G),
11:33, Oliver C. (G),
16:02, Heeney I. (G),
17:12, Sparrow T. (Behind),
17:38, Sparrow T. (G),
21:05, Sharp H. (G),
23:44, Melksham J. (G),
26:46, Fritsch B. (G),
28:23, Cleary C. (Behind),
32:24, Warner C. (G),
34:54, Melksham J. (G),
36:28, McLean H. (G),
38:49, Campbell B. (Behind),

Preview

A great opportunity to watch a clash of neighbouring teams in the table (ranked 14 and 12)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Melbourne won 2.

Melbourne is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Sydney has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Melbourne may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

We predict that Melbourne will win today's game, with odds of 1.93.

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Melbourne won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 992:1219. (average 62:76.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Melbourne won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 674:846. (average 67.4:84.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Melbourne Demons
AFL
18.05.25	Brisbane Lions - Melbourne Demons	88:99 ✺
09.05.25	Melbourne Demons - Hawthorn Hawks	56:91 ✺
03.05.25	West Coast Eagles - Melbourne Demons	76:108 ✺
24.04.25	Melbourne Demons - Richmond Tigers	83:63 ✺
18.04.25	Melbourne Demons - Fremantle Dockers	107:97 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.7 WLWWW
- Sydney Swans
AFL
16.05.25	Sydney Swans - Carlton Blues	78:62 ✺
10.05.25	Essendon Bombers - Sydney Swans	71:63 ✺
03.05.25	Sydney Swans - Greater Western Sydney Giants	87:73 ✺
26.04.25	Gold Coast Suns - Sydney Swans	117:79 ✺
20.04.25	Sydney Swans - Port Adelaide Power	77:85 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

AFL
07.03.24	Sydney Swans - Melbourne Demons	86:64
27.08.23	Sydney Swans - Melbourne Demons	56:77
02.04.23	Melbourne Demons - Sydney Swans	134:84
02.09.22	Melbourne Demons - Sydney Swans	69:91
04.06.22	Melbourne Demons - Sydney Swans	61:73
08.05.21	Melbourne Demons - Sydney Swans	67:58
03.09.20	Sydney Swans - Melbourne Demons	67:46

Melbourne Demons - Sydney Swans: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide