Match Info

WNBL Women - Round 8

Date: 9 December 2025, Tuesday

Location: AIS Arena (Canberra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	ESPN


	Canberra Capitals		Adelaide Lightning

	1	2
	1.3	3.05
	1.3	3.17
	1.31	3.07	Watch
	1.36	3
	1.37	2.97
	1.35	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.33 ↓ (1.5)	3.04 ↑ (2.27)

The most likely Over/Under: 152.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-7)

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Canberra Capitals
69.6%

Adelaide Lightning
30.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.2%

39.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.3%

36.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Canberra Capitals has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Canberra Capitals's performance.

Adelaide Lightning has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Adelaide Lightning might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Canberra Capitals than the current prediction. (-6.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Canberra Capitals that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Adelaide Lightning than the current prediction. (+6.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Adelaide Lightning could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	0%	50%

Canberra Capitals - Adelaide Lightning Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Canberra will win (votes: 3 - 50%). Adelaide will win (votes: 3 - 50%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Adelaide (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 80:73

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Lineups


15. Aokuso Z.	8. Bollmann E.
46. Blicavs Sa.	41. Brazel T.
9. Bobongie M.	20. Feagin S.
24. Brancatisano I.	15. Fejo J.
21. Clark J.	10. Freer M.
5. Melbourne J.	4. Loughridge D.
3. Morrell T.	6. Porter R.
10. Munger N.	31. Strawbridge A.
13. Puoch N.	7. Talbot S.
8. Russell Z.	1. Tofaeono E.
30. Sissoko K.
1. Watkins T.

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Canberra won 2.

Recent performances by Canberra have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Adelaide is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Canberra may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Canberra is the team to beat.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Canberra won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 1539:1556. (average 77:77.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Canberra won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 828:779. (average 82.8:77.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Canberra Capitals
Australian WNBL
06.12.25	Geelong Venom - Canberra Capitals	75:76 ✺
29.11.25	Canberra Capitals - Perth Lynx	67:91 ✺
22.11.25	Townsville Fire - Canberra Capitals	101:61 ✺
14.11.25	Canberra Capitals - Sydney Flames	96:56 ✺
08.11.25	Bendigo Spirit - Canberra Capitals	73:71 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 WLLWL
- Adelaide Lightning
Australian WNBL
29.11.25	Bendigo Spirit - Adelaide Lightning	71:65 ✺
25.11.25	Adelaide Lightning - Townsville Fire	64:90 ✺
21.11.25	Adelaide Lightning - Geelong Venom	99:93 OT ✺
18.11.25	Adelaide Lightning - Bendigo Spirit	74:82 ✺
15.11.25	Townsville Fire - Adelaide Lightning	103:69 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Australian WNBL
31.10.25	Adelaide Lightning - Canberra Capitals	73:65
10.01.25	Canberra Capitals - Adelaide Lightning	91:76
03.01.25	Adelaide Lightning - Canberra Capitals	77:88
14.12.24	Adelaide Lightning - Canberra Capitals	68:67
27.01.24	Adelaide Lightning - Canberra Capitals	84:67
21.12.23	Canberra Capitals - Adelaide Lightning	86:73
05.11.23	Canberra Capitals - Adelaide Lightning	79:82

Canberra Capitals - Adelaide Lightning: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide