Match Info

WNBA

Date: 7 August 2026, Friday

Location: Mohegan Sun Arena (Montville, NJ)

Where to Watch on TV:


Canada	fubo Sports Network


	Connecticut Sun		Phoenix Mercury

	1	2
	2.7	1.44	Watch
	2.85	1.44
	2.8	1.42
	3	1.43
	2.74	1.43	Watch
	2.8	1.43
	2.79	1.46
	2.9	1.42
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.82 ↑ (2.67)	1.43 ↑ (1.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 172.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-6)

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Connecticut Sun
33.7%

Phoenix Mercury
66.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.6%

65.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.7%

59.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Connecticut Sun has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

Phoenix Mercury has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Connecticut Sun than the current prediction. (+7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Connecticut Sun, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Phoenix Mercury than the current prediction. (-7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Phoenix Mercury, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
45.5%	0%	54.5%

Connecticut Sun - Phoenix Mercury Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Connecticut will win (votes: 4 - 40%). Phoenix will win (votes: 6 - 60%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Phoenix: 29.6% – 90.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Phoenix (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 83:89

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
42. Griner B.	24. Bonner D.
47. Lacan L.	1. Brochant N.
4. Leger-Walker C.	2. Copper K.
1. Miller D.	0. Plum K.
10. Nelson-Ododa O.	25. Thomas A.
Coaches
. Meziane R.	. Tibbetts N.

Preview

In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 14 and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Connecticut won 2.

Connecticut is going through a poor run of results (last 5 games: 0 wins).

In recent matches, Phoenix has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Connecticut may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Connecticut has had a series of away games.

In this match, Phoenix is the team to beat.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Connecticut won 13 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 1555:1424. (average 77.8:71.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Connecticut won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 757:662. (average 84.1:73.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Connecticut Sun
WNBA
02.08.26	Dallas Wings - Connecticut Sun	83:63 ✺
30.07.26	Chicago Sky - Connecticut Sun	94:88 ✺
28.07.26	Washington Mystics - Connecticut Sun	92:84 ✺
22.07.26	Indiana Fever - Connecticut Sun	123:88 ✺
19.07.26	Phoenix Mercury - Connecticut Sun	72:63 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Phoenix Mercury
WNBA
05.08.26	Atlanta Dream - Phoenix Mercury	96:82 ✺
03.08.26	Chicago Sky - Phoenix Mercury	101:106 ✺
01.08.26	Phoenix Mercury - New York Liberty	92:94 ✺
29.07.26	Phoenix Mercury - Golden State Valkyries	91:89 ✺
22.07.26	Los Angeles Sparks - Phoenix Mercury	82:86 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 LWLWW

Latest Head to Head

WNBA
19.07.26	Phoenix Mercury - Connecticut Sun	72:63
17.07.26	Phoenix Mercury - Connecticut Sun	83:96
06.09.25	Connecticut Sun - Phoenix Mercury	87:84
05.08.25	Phoenix Mercury - Connecticut Sun	82:66
18.06.25	Connecticut Sun - Phoenix Mercury	75:83
13.09.24	Phoenix Mercury - Connecticut Sun	69:88
14.07.24	Connecticut Sun - Phoenix Mercury	96:69

Connecticut Sun - Phoenix Mercury: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide