Match Info

NBL - Round 18

Date: 23 January 2026, Friday

Location: Spark Arena (Auckland)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	ESPN, Foxtel Now, Kayo Sports


	New Zealand Breakers		Adelaide 36ers

	1	2
			Watch
	2.9	1.37
	2.99	1.35	Watch
	2.9	1.36
	3.1	1.39	Watch
	3	1.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.98 ↑ (2.37)	1.37 ↓ (1.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 179.00

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-7)

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

New Zealand Breakers
31.6%

Adelaide 36ers
68.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

38.4%

61.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.8%

55.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

New Zealand Breakers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that New Zealand Breakers's form might have worsened.

Adelaide 36ers has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Adelaide 36ers's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for New Zealand Breakers than the current prediction. (+13.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for New Zealand Breakers, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Adelaide 36ers than the current prediction. (-13.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Adelaide 36ers, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

New Zealand Breakers - Adelaide 36ers Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. NZ Breakers will win (votes: 4 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. NZ Breakers (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 172.5, OT - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 87:94

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
8. Brockington I.	1. Cameron F.
6. Jackson-Cartwright P.	45. Cheatham Z.
1. Lopez K.	11. Cotton B.
3. Mennenga S.	8. Humphries I.
7. Te Rangi R.	12. Jenkins J.
Substitutes
20. Andrew J.	17. Harris M.
2. Bairstow S.	00. Kenyon M.
5. Britt T.	31. Rakocevic N.
12. Darling M.	22. Rasmussen K.
21. Davison C.	34. Vasiljevic D.
15. Loe R.	2. White I.
0. McNaught A.
90. Webster T.
Coaches
. Koponen P.	. Wells M.

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 7 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ NBL (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, NZ Breakers won 1.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

NZ Breakers may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Adelaide has had a series of home games.

Adelaide might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, NZ Breakers won 10 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 1767:1698. (average 88.4:84.9).

Including home matches between the teams, NZ Breakers won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 880:847. (average 88:84.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	L		PCT
4	New Zealand Breakers	8	4	4	737:712	0.500
5	Adelaide	8	4	4	710:726	0.500

Outrights of Australian NBL for now

New Zealand Breakers: 4.11%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- New Zealand Breakers
Australian NBL
21.01.26	South East Melbourne Phoenix - New Zealand Breakers	123:116 ✺
17.01.26	Cairns Taipans - New Zealand Breakers	86:104 ✺
10.01.26	Illawarra Hawks - New Zealand Breakers	96:101 ✺
09.01.26	New Zealand Breakers - Sydney Kings	62:103 ✺
03.01.26	New Zealand Breakers - Perth Wildcats	91:99 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 LWWLL
- Adelaide 36ers
Australian NBL
17.01.26	Adelaide 36ers - South East Melbourne Phoenix	89:108 ✺
09.01.26	Adelaide 36ers - Tasmania JackJumpers	72:80 ✺
04.01.26	Brisbane Bullets - Adelaide 36ers	86:97 ✺
02.01.26	Adelaide 36ers - Sydney Kings	85:79 ✺
27.12.25	Adelaide 36ers - Perth Wildcats	95:84 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 LLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Australian NBL
06.11.25	New Zealand Breakers - Adelaide 36ers	79:83
26.01.25	Adelaide 36ers - New Zealand Breakers	94:78
14.12.24	Adelaide 36ers - New Zealand Breakers	111:94
02.11.24	New Zealand Breakers - Adelaide 36ers	109:82
Club Friendly Basketball
11.09.24	New Zealand Breakers - Adelaide 36ers	91:98
Australian NBL
18.02.24	Adelaide 36ers - New Zealand Breakers	76:70
30.11.23	New Zealand Breakers - Adelaide 36ers	96:83

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