Match Info

Euroleague - Round 22

Date: 16 January 2026, Friday

Location: Movistar Arena (Madrid)

Referee: Vilius G. (Ltu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Croatia	SportKlub 1
Czech-republic	Oneplay, Oneplay Sport 1, Oneplay Sport 3, Oneplay Sport 4
Europe	Go3 Baltic Euroleague
Finland	Veikkaus TV
France	SKWeek App
Germany	Magenta Sport
Greece	Nova Sports Prime
Israel	Sport 5
Poland	Polsat Sport Fight
Portugal	Sport TV7
Russia	Okko Sport
Slovenia	SportKlub 1
Turkey	S Sport+
Ukraine	Setanta Sports Premium
World	EuroLeague TV


	Real Madrid		Barcelona

	1	2
	1.5	2.55	Watch
	1.5	2.6
	1.5	2.73	Watch
	1.47	2.5
	1.5	2.7	Watch
	1.52	2.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.5 ↑ (1.44)	2.61 ↓ (2.86)

The most likely Over/Under: 174.00

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-5)

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Madrid
63.6%

Barcelona
36.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

66.5%

33.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.6%

41.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Madrid has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

Barcelona has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Madrid than the current prediction. (-5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Barcelona than the current prediction. (+5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
82.4%	0%	17.6%

Real Madrid - Barcelona Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +5.5 - Barcelona (1.73) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Real Madrid will win (14 of 17 users predict this - 82.35%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.23% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Real Madrid will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Real Madrid (votes: 7 - 87.5%). Barcelona (votes: 1 - 12.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 90:85

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
6. Abalde A.	44. Parra J.
8. Okeke C.	5. Norris M.
22. Tavares E.	6. Vesely J.
11. Hezonja M.	0. Punter K.
7. Campazzo F.	13. Satoransky T.
Substitutes
14. Deck G.	8. Brizuela D.
24. Feliz A.	3. Cale M.
16. Garuba U.	19. Fall Y.
25. Len A.	14. Hernangomez W.
23. Llull S.	20. Laprovittola N.
0. Lyles T.	2. Marcos J.
12. Maledon T.	23. Shengelia T.
Coaches
. Scariolo S.	. Pascual X.

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Real Madrid won 4.

Real Madrid is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Barcelona is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Barcelona may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Barcelona has had a series of home games.

Real Madrid is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Real Madrid won 14 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 1770:1707. (average 88.5:85.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Real Madrid won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 888:847. (average 88.8:84.7).

Outrights of Euroleague for now

Real Madrid: 8.19% Barcelona: 3.54%

Standings

		Pl	W	L
8	Barcelona	4	2	2	352:346
15	Real Madrid	4	1	3	345:350

Last Results with these Odds

Real Madrid - the odds 1.44 are the expected chance of winning is 66.51%, but this team recently wins 78% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Madrid basketball
Spanish ACB League
11.01.26	BC Andorra - Real Madrid	85:90 ✺
Euroleague
08.01.26	Real Madrid - Maccabi Tel Aviv	98:86 ✺
06.01.26	ASVEL Basket - Real Madrid	69:80 ✺
Spanish ACB League
04.01.26	Real Madrid - Barcelona	100:105 ✺
Euroleague
02.01.26	Real Madrid - Dubai	107:93 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WWWLW
- FC Barcelona Basketball
Spanish ACB League
11.01.26	Barcelona - Granada	108:71 ✺
Euroleague
09.01.26	Barcelona - Partizan Belgrade	88:70 ✺
06.01.26	Barcelona - Maccabi Tel Aviv	93:83 ✺
Spanish ACB League
04.01.26	Real Madrid - Barcelona	100:105 ✺
02.01.26	Barcelona - Basket Zaragoza	100:80 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish ACB League
04.01.26	Real Madrid - Barcelona	100:105
Euroleague
07.11.25	Barcelona - Real Madrid	92:101
Spanish ACB League
06.04.25	Barcelona - Real Madrid	89:91
Euroleague
27.02.25	Real Madrid - Barcelona	96:91
Spanish ACB League
29.12.24	Real Madrid - Barcelona	73:71
Euroleague
28.11.24	Barcelona - Real Madrid	90:97 OT
Spanish Supercopa ACB
21.09.24	Real Madrid - Barcelona	89:83

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