Match Info

Euroleague - Round 30

Date: 5 March 2026, Thursday

Location: Movistar Arena (Madrid)

Referee: Bittner S. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Croatia	SportKlub 1
Europe	Go3 Baltic Euroleague
Finland	Veikkaus TV
France	SKWeek App
Germany	Magenta Sport
Greece	Nova Sports 3
Israel	Sport 5
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 1, Arena Premium 2
Slovenia	SportKlub 3
Spain	Movistar Plus+
Turkey	S Sport+
World	EuroLeague TV


	Real Madrid		Virtus Bologna

	1	2
	1.1	6	Watch
	1.12	5.25
	1.12	6.25	Watch
	1.15	5.93
	1.15	6.17	Watch
	1.13	6.2
	1.1	7.85	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.12 ↓ (1.23)	6.24 ↑ (4.47)

The most likely Over/Under: 168.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-12)

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Madrid
84.7%

Virtus Bologna
15.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

78.4%

21.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Madrid has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Real Madrid's performance.

Virtus Bologna has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Virtus Bologna might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	0%	25%

Real Madrid - Virtus Bologna Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Real Madrid will win (votes: 6 - 75%). Virtus Bologna will win (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Real Madrid: 45% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Real Madrid (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 90:78

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
11. Hezonja M.	34. Jallow K.
8. Okeke C.	21. Alston Jr. D.
22. Tavares E.	9. Smailagic A.
6. Abalde A.	3. Edwards C.
7. Campazzo F.	1. Vildoza L.
Substitutes
14. Deck G.	45. Akele N.
24. Feliz A.	2. Baiocchi M.
16. Garuba U.	31. Diarra A.
25. Len A.	35. Diouf M.
23. Llull S.	24. Ferrari F.
0. Lyles T.	30. Morgan M.
12. Maledon T.	7. Niang S.
Coaches
. Scariolo S.	. Ivanovic D.

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Real Madrid won 4.

Real Madrid is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Virtus Bologna has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Virtus Bologna may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Real Madrid is the clear favorite.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Real Madrid won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 623:549. (average 89:78.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Real Madrid won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 290:255. (average 96.7:85).

Outrights of Euroleague for now

Real Madrid: 8.19% Virtus Bologna: 0.87%

Standings

		Pl	W	L
9	Virtus Bologna	4	2	2	343:346
15	Real Madrid	4	1	3	345:350

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Madrid basketball
Euroleague
26.02.26	Real Madrid - Bayern München	93:70 ✺
Spanish Basketball Cup
22.02.26	Real Madrid - Baskonia	89:100 ✺
21.02.26	Valencia - Real Madrid	106:108 ✺
19.02.26	Real Madrid - Unicaja Malaga	100:70 ✺
Spanish ACB League
15.02.26	Unicaja Malaga - Real Madrid	92:96 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 WLWWW
- Virtus Bologna
Euroleague
25.02.26	Virtus Bologna - Barcelona	85:80 ✺
Italian Cup Basketball
21.02.26	Derthona Basket Tortona - Virtus Bologna	84:78 ✺
19.02.26	Virtus Bologna - Napoli Basket	83:73 ✺
Italian Lega A Basketball
15.02.26	Virtus Bologna - Udine	90:86 ✺
Euroleague
12.02.26	Anadolu Efes Pilsen - Virtus Bologna	91:60 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Euroleague
30.09.25	Virtus Bologna - Real Madrid	74:68
13.03.25	Virtus Bologna - Real Madrid	67:80
12.11.24	Real Madrid - Virtus Bologna	98:86
15.03.24	Virtus Bologna - Real Madrid	74:89
09.11.23	Real Madrid - Virtus Bologna	100:74
24.03.23	Virtus Bologna - Real Madrid	79:96
27.10.22	Real Madrid - Virtus Bologna	92:95

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