Match Info

NBL - Round 16

Date: 11 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Qudos Bank Arena (Sydney)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	ESPN, Foxtel Now, Kayo Sports


	Sydney Kings		Melbourne United

	1	2
	1.52	2.4
	1.69	2.07	Watch
	1.62	2.1
	1.62	2.37	Watch
	1.62	2.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.61 ↑ (1.61)	2.26 ↑ (2.24)

The most likely Over/Under: 183.00

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-3)

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sydney Kings
58.3%

Melbourne United
41.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.7%

41.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The chances for Sydney Kings have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

The chances for Melbourne United have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sydney Kings than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Melbourne United than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

Sydney Kings - Melbourne United Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 94:91

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Davis K.	7. Delany F.
8. Dellavedova M.	35. Doyle M.
15. Maluach M.	14. Edwards J.
3. Robertson T.	43. Goulding C. (C)
11. Soares T.	2. Walker T.
Substitutes
21. Awan L.	15. Bowen K.
7. Bruce S. (C)	4. Daniels D.
6. Galloway J.	30. Koppens T.
5. Goodrick H.	13. Krebs T.
20. Malual G.	18. Krslovic F.
12. Noi K.	9. Machar M.
	12. Wilson T.
Coaches
. Goorjian B.	. Vickerman D.

Preview

The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ NBL (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ NBL (Play Offs: Quarter~finals))

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sydney won 2.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Sydney may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Sydney could have a small edge in this match.

We predict that Sydney will win today's game, with odds of 1.57.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Sydney won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 1746:1784. (average 87.3:89.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Sydney won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 815:793. (average 90.6:88.1).

Standings

		Pl	W	L		PCT
2	Sydney	7	5	2	714:617	0.714
7	Melbourne United	7	3	4	647:630	0.429

Outrights of Australian NBL for now

Melbourne United: 24.79%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sydney Kings
Australian NBL
09.01.26	New Zealand Breakers - Sydney Kings	62:103 ✺
05.01.26	Sydney Kings - South East Melbourne Phoenix	117:124 ✺
02.01.26	Adelaide 36ers - Sydney Kings	85:79 ✺
30.12.25	Sydney Kings - Brisbane Bullets	95:70 ✺
25.12.25	Sydney Kings - Illawarra Hawks	108:84 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WLLWW
- Melbourne United
Australian NBL
07.01.26	Melbourne United - Cairns Taipans	92:93 ✺
03.01.26	Tasmania JackJumpers - Melbourne United	84:75 ✺
27.12.25	Brisbane Bullets - Melbourne United	87:92 ✺
23.12.25	Melbourne United - Tasmania JackJumpers	73:92 ✺
18.12.25	Melbourne United - Illawarra Hawks	97:75 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 LLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Australian NBL
13.12.25	Melbourne United - Sydney Kings	86:92 OT
03.11.25	Melbourne United - Sydney Kings	92:95
08.10.25	Sydney Kings - Melbourne United	93:107
09.01.25	Sydney Kings - Melbourne United	88:90
30.11.24	Melbourne United - Sydney Kings	101:98
31.10.24	Melbourne United - Sydney Kings	87:83
28.01.24	Sydney Kings - Melbourne United	98:86

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