Match Info

Lega A - Round 16

Date: 18 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Palasport Lino Oldrini (Varese)

Referee: Miniati G. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV
Italy	LBA TV


	Varese		Venezia

	1	2
			Watch
	2.25	1.62	Watch
	2.22	1.63	Watch
	2.25	1.67
	2.32	1.64	Watch
	2.2	1.62
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.25 ↑ (2.21)	1.64 ↑ (1.61)

The most likely Over/Under: 176.00

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-3)

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Varese
42.1%

Venezia
57.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.1%

51.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The chances for Varese have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

The chances for Venezia have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Varese than the current prediction. (+6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Varese, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Venezia than the current prediction. (-6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Venezia, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88.9%	0%	11.1%

Varese - Venezia Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Varese will win (votes: 8 - 88.9%). Venezia will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Varese: 68.4% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 173.5, OT - over (votes: 10 - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Varese will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 87:90

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
2. Alviti D.	1. Cole R.J.
11. Iroegbu I.	2. Horton C.
4. Moore T.	45. Valentine D.
8. Nkamhoua O.	10. Wheatle C.
15. Renfro N.	33. Wiltjer K.
Substitutes
19. Bergamin M.	7. Candi L.
55. Freeman A.	5. De Nicolao G.
34. Ladurner M.	40. Eramo F.
13. Librizzi M.	14. Janelidze G.
7. N'Guessan E.	4. Lever A.
1. Stewart C.	22. Parks J.
5. Villa M.	00. Tessitori A.
Coaches
. Kastritis I.	. Spahija N.

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 11 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Lega A (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Varese won 0.

In recent matches, Varese has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Venezia is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Varese may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Venezia has had a series of home games.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Varese won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 1571:1646. (average 78.6:82.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Varese won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 794:815. (average 79.4:81.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	L		Pts
4	Venezia	2	2	0	172:155	4
6	Varese	3	2	1	239:251	4

Last Results with these Odds

Varese - the odds 2.21 are the expected chance of winning is 42.11%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Venezia - the odds 1.61 are the expected chance of winning is 57.89%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pallacanestro Varese
Italian Lega A Basketball
11.01.26	Treviso Basket - Varese	86:83 ✺
03.01.26	Varese - Napoli Basket	84:80 ✺
28.12.25	Trapani - Varese	88:95 ✺
21.12.25	Varese - Trieste	84:69 ✺
14.12.25	Basket Brescia - Varese	102:94 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 LWWWL
- Umana Venezia
Eurocup
14.01.26	Venezia - Śląsk Wrocław	103:76 ✺
Italian Lega A Basketball
11.01.26	Venezia - Virtus Bologna	75:81 ✺
Eurocup
07.01.26	Venezia - U BT Cluj-Napoca	90:83 ✺
Italian Lega A Basketball
05.01.26	Venezia - Treviso Basket	87:66 ✺
Eurocup
02.01.26	Neptūnas - Venezia	103:118 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Lega A Basketball
02.11.25	Venezia - Varese	86:75
11.05.25	Venezia - Varese	83:64
01.12.24	Varese - Venezia	77:86
14.01.24	Varese - Venezia	92:103
29.10.23	Venezia - Varese	102:88
Club Friendly Basketball
08.09.23	Venezia - Varese	89:77
Italian Lega A Basketball
23.04.23	Venezia - Varese	92:81

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