Match Info

The Ford Trophy - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 19 February 2026, Thursday 🏁 Finished

Location: The Ford Trophy 🌤️ ...


	Central Stags		Wellington Firebirds

	1	2
	1.67	2.1	Watch
	1.6	2.1
	2.03	1.70	Watch
	1.65	2.27	Watch
	1.61	2.16
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.71 ↑ (1.69)	2.07 ↓ (2.15)

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Central Stags
54.7%

Wellington Firebirds
45.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

56%

44%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.2%

41.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Central Stags has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

Wellington Firebirds has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Central Stags than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Wellington Firebirds than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Central Stags - Wellington Firebirds Predictions

Users Predictions: Central Stags will win (9 of 9 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Central Stags will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

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Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Central Stags won 4.

Central Stags is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Wellington has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

We predict that Central Stags will win today's game, with odds of 1.66.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Central Stags won 11 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 3588:3390. (average 179.4:169.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Central Stags won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 2622:2213. (average 218.5:184.4).

Standings

		Pts	W	L	D	N/R		Pts
4	Central Stags	0	0	0	0	0	0:0	0
6	Wellington Firebirds	0	0	0	0	0	0:0	0

Last Results with these Odds

Central Stags - the odds 1.69 are the expected chance of winning is 56.01%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Central Stags
Ford Trophy
16.02.26	Central Stags - Canterbury Kings	276:254 ✺
12.02.26	Central Stags - Otago Volts	Abandoned ✺
09.02.26	Northern Brave - Central Stags	309:240 ✺
06.02.26	Central Stags - Auckland Aces	164:163 ✺
03.02.26	Wellington Firebirds - Central Stags	289:307 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 W?LWW
- Wellington Firebirds
Ford Trophy
17.02.26	Wellington Firebirds - Northern Brave	281:163 ✺
12.02.26	Canterbury Kings - Wellington Firebirds	69:68 ✺
09.02.26	Auckland Aces - Wellington Firebirds	240:243 ✺
06.02.26	Otago Volts - Wellington Firebirds	213:269 ✺
03.02.26	Wellington Firebirds - Central Stags	289:307 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Ford Trophy
03.02.26	Wellington Firebirds - Central Stags	289:307
Super Smash
06.01.26	Wellington Firebirds - Central Stags	195:197
26.12.25	Central Stags - Wellington Firebirds	188:142
Plunket Shield
25.11.25	Wellington Firebirds - Central Stags	354:118
Ford Trophy
24.10.25	Central Stags - Wellington Firebirds	201:199
22.02.25	Central Stags - Wellington Firebirds	253:251
Super Smash
08.01.25	Wellington Firebirds - Central Stags	192:196

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