Match Info

National League - Round 9

Date: 4 October 2026, Sunday

Location: Raiffeisen Arena (Porrentruy)


	Ajoie		Lugano

	1	X	2
	2.75	4.5	2.1	Watch
	3.20	4.50	1.87
	2.85	4.3	2.06
	3.05	4.13	1.99
	2.96	4.51	1.98	Watch
	2.7	4.15	1.94
	3.17	4.4	1.98	Watch
	2.8	4.3	1.99
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.94 ↑ (2.8)	4.35 ↑ (4.2)	1.99 ↓ (2.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.75

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Ajoie
31.7%

Draw
21.4%

Lugano
46.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.3%

22.2%

44.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.1%

23.8%

47.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ajoie has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

Lugano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ajoie than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lugano than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

Ajoie - Lugano Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:3

#ad

Lineups

Line 1
29. Patenaude N. (G)	34. Schlegel N. (G)
3. Honka A. (C)	60. Thomson L.
58. Zgraggen J.	25. Muller M.
32. Turkulainen J.	17. Fazzini L. (A)
27. Tanus K.	21. Sanford Z.
74. Nattinen J.	14. Canonica L.
Line 2
60. Honka J.	26. Aebischer D.
26. Fey K.	63. Dahlstrom C.
7. Carr D.	10. Bertaggia A.
17. Smirnovs D.	97. Thurkauf C. (C)
44. Christen L.	12. Innala J.
Line 3
15. Christe G.	22. Alatalo S. (A)
2. Pilet V.	52. Peltonen J.
78. Sopa K.	11. Zanetti M.
8. Devos P. (A)	73. Shore N.
20. Cormier C.	15. Lycksell O.
Line 4
91. Berthoud Y.	65. Cjunskis H.
19. Wick J. (A)	91. Olsson D.
86. Diem N.	23. Morini G.
73. Cavalleri C.	7. Tanner R.
Substitutes
30. Keller A. (G)	13. Peltonen A.
25. Tarchini N.	37. Van Pottelberghe J. (G)
Coaches
. Peltonen V.	. Mitell T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (1 - 2)
02:18, 0 - 1, Sanford Z. (G), Aebischer D. (A), Canonica L. (A2)
07:43, Carr D. (2 min),
10:52, Carr D. (2 min),
14:47, 1 - 1, Smirnovs D. (G), Christe G. (A), Carr D. (A2)
19:04, 1 - 2, Thurkauf C. (G), Bertaggia A. (A),
19:23, Morini G. (2 min),
2nd Period (0 - 0)
12:23, Muller M. (2 min),
15:39, Wick J. (2 min),
15:39, Thomson L. (2 min),
3rd Period (4 - 2)
04:21, 1 - 3, Fazzini L. (G), Thomson L. (A), Muller M. (A2)
05:24, Alatalo S. (2 min),
05:51, 2 - 3, Honka A. (G), Carr D. (A), Nattinen J. (A2)
07:50, 3 - 3, Honka A. (G), Smirnovs D. (A), Nattinen J. (A2)
12:22, Lycksell O. (2 min),
13:46, 4 - 3, Sopa K. (G), Nattinen J. (A), Honka J. (A2)
15:48, 5 - 3, Nattinen J. (G), Turkulainen J. (A), Tanus K. (A2)
16:17, Carr D. (2 min),
16:45, 5 - 4, Innala J. (G), Alatalo S. (A), Thomson L. (A2)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ajoie won 0.

The recent form of both competitors has been marked by mixed results.

Ajoie may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Lugano holding a narrow advantage.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Ajoie has recorded 5 wins, 0 draws, and 15 losses, with a goal aggregate of 38:61 (averaging 1.9:3.1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Ajoie against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 0 draws, and 6 losses, with 19:22 goals (averaging 2.1:2.4 per game).

Outrights of Swiss National League Hockey for now

Lugano: 5.51% Ajoie: 0.88%

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
6	Ajoie	10	2	3	2	3	30:34	14
9	Lugano	9	3	1	1	4	33:31	12

Last Results with these Odds

Ajoie - the odds 2.8 are the expected chance of winning is 33.33%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Lugano - the odds 2.1 are the expected chance of winning is 44.44%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- HC Ajoie
Swiss National League Hockey
02.10.26	Davos - Ajoie	3:1 ✺
29.09.26	Ajoie - Lausanne HC	3:0 ✺
26.09.26	Ajoie - Rapperswil-Jona Lakers	4:5 OT ✺
25.09.26	Bern - Ajoie	2:3 AET ✺
22.09.26	Ajoie - ZSC Lions	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.8 LWLWL
- HC Lugano
Swiss National League Hockey
02.10.26	Lugano - Rapperswil-Jona Lakers	5:2 ✺
29.09.26	SCL Tigers - Lugano	4:3 ✺
26.09.26	Lugano - Ambrì-Piotta	3:5 ✺
22.09.26	Lugano - EV Zug	3:2 AET ✺
18.09.26	EHC Kloten - Lugano	5:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 WLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Swiss National League Hockey
27.02.26	Ajoie - Lugano	0:1
22.12.25	Lugano - Ajoie	6:1
12.10.25	Ajoie - Lugano	1:2
19.09.25	Lugano - Ajoie	2:0
25.03.25	Ajoie - Lugano	1:2
23.03.25	Lugano - Ajoie	3:0
21.03.25	Ajoie - Lugano	3:4 OT

Upcoming Matches