Match Info

Date: 12 October 2022, Wednesday


	Dizel Penza		Ermak Angarsk

	1	X	2
	1.55	4.2	4.2
	1.6	4.28	4.15
	1.58	4.45	4.6	Watch
	1.58	4.4	4.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.58 ↓ (1.98)	4.33 ↑ (3.9)	4.34 ↑ (3.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.00

The best margin for this event is 7.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Dizel Penza
57.9%

Draw
21.1%

Ermak Angarsk
21%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47%

23.9%

29.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.8%

23.5%

28.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Dizel Penza has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Dizel Penza's performance.

Ermak Angarsk has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Ermak Angarsk might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Dizel Penza than the current prediction. (-10.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Dizel Penza that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ermak Angarsk than the current prediction. (+7.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Ermak Angarsk could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Dizel Penza - Ermak Angarsk Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Dizel won 3.

Recent matches Dizel is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Ermak is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Dizel could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Dizel have a series of guest games.

Dizel will have a mini benefit in this match.

Our prediction for today's Dizel to win the game is with odds 1.76.

Last 18 head-to-head matches Dizel won 8 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 10 matches and goals 42-36.

Including matches at home between the teams Dizel won 4 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 25-16.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Dizel Penza
VHL
07.10.22	Dinamo St. Petersburg - Dizel Penza	3:2 penalties ✺
05.10.22	SKA-VMF - Dizel Penza	2:3 penalties ✺
03.10.22	Rubin Tyumen - Dizel Penza	4:5 penalties ✺
01.10.22	Yugra Khanty-Mansiysk - Dizel Penza	3:1 ✺
26.09.22	Dizel Penza - Neftyanik Almetyevsk	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 24.8 LWWLW
- Ermak Angarsk
VHL
10.10.22	Ryazan - Ermak Angarsk	2:1 ✺
08.10.22	Khimik - Ermak Angarsk	2:3 ✺
02.10.22	Ermak Angarsk - Gornyak-UGMK	2:3 OT ✺
30.09.22	Ermak Angarsk - Zauralie Kurgan	0:1 ✺
28.09.22	Ermak Angarsk - Chelmet	3:4 OT ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 LWLLL

Latest Head to Head

VHL
24.12.21	Ermak Angarsk - Dizel Penza	1:2
23.10.21	Dizel Penza - Ermak Angarsk	2:3
30.11.20	Ermak Angarsk - Dizel Penza	2:0
20.11.20	Dizel Penza - Ermak Angarsk	5:1
12.10.19	Ermak Angarsk - Dizel Penza	1:5
02.02.19	Ermak Angarsk - Dizel Penza	5:1
31.10.18	Dizel Penza - Ermak Angarsk	6:1

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