Match Info

VHL

Date: 29 September 2026, Tuesday


	Dizel Penza		Norilsk

	1	X	2
	1.54	3.93	4.24
	1.5	3.85	4.15
	1.93	4	3.34	Watch
	1.83	3.95	3.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.7 ↓ (2.46)	3.93 ↑ (3.82)	3.8 ↑ (2.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 4.50

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Dizel Penza
53.2%

Draw
23%

Norilsk
23.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.9%

24.4%

37.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.9%

26.4%

34.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Dizel Penza has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+15.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Dizel Penza's performance.

Norilsk has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Norilsk might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Dizel Penza than the current prediction. (-12.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Dizel Penza that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Norilsk than the current prediction. (+11%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Norilsk could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	33.3%	33.3%

Dizel Penza - Norilsk Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Dizel will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Norilsk will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Norilsk (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Line 1
52. Dagestansky D. (G)	77. Guskov Y. (G)
9. Balanov Y.	4. Shalapov Y. (A)
75. Pogorishny O. (A)	11. Steklov K.
69. Boluchevsky A. (A)	69. Filin F.
13. Svishchyov K.	52. Shevchenko V.
66. Misnikov A.	23. Klimovich Y.
Line 2
25. Rudakov G.	39. Bolshakov M.
83. Sukhov S.	66. Drugalya S.
7. Savunov D.	8. Avramenko I.
47. Bobylyov V.	36. Zlodeyev D.
97. Borisenkov A.	88. Shalagin M.
Line 3
59. Nikitin Y.	43. Sinitsky I.
24. Pelevin A.	5. Krasnov A.
70. Gazizov R.	56. Mokin N. (C)
87. Mingaleyev D. (C)	10. Lipanov A.
33. Mukhanov T.	86. Kirileichenko M.
Line 4
91. Opolinsky M.	22. Rodionov A.
5. Gafarov G.	28. Shevchenko A. (A)
81. Mayorov N.	87. Gorbunov Y.
84. Utkin M.	71. Rasseikin M.
23. Chesnokov G.
Substitutes
27. Arzamastsev A. (G)	70. Vojtyuk

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (3 - 0)
06:58, 1 - 0, Boluchevsky A. (G), Nikitin Y. (A), Mukhanov T. (A2)
12:53, 2 - 0, Mukhanov T. (G),
14:00, 3 - 0, Boluchevsky A. (G),
2nd Period (1 - 0)
14:01, 4 - 0, Gazizov R. (G), Borisenkov A. (A),
3rd Period (1 - 0)
10:55, 5 - 0, Boluchevsky A. (G), Mukhanov T. (A), Gazizov R. (A2)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Dizel won 3.

Recent results have been tough for Dizel (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Norilsk has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Dizel could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, Dizel has recorded 4 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 12:11 (averaging 2:1.8 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Dizel against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with 3:9 goals (averaging 1:3 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
4	HC Norilsk	14	7	1	2	4	32:32	18
16	Dizel	11	3	2	2	4	24:24	12

Last Results with these Odds

Dizel Penza - the odds 2.46 are the expected chance of winning is 37.94%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Norilsk - the odds 2.48 are the expected chance of winning is 37.63%, but this team recently wins 32% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Dizel Penza
VHL
25.09.26	Kaluga - Dizel Penza	2:3 penalties ✺
23.09.26	AKM - Dizel Penza	5:2 ✺
21.09.26	Ryazan - Dizel Penza	4:3 OT ✺
11.09.26	Dizel Penza - Bars Kazan	1:3 ✺
09.09.26	Dizel Penza - Neftyanik Almetyevsk	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 WLLLL
- HK Norilsk
VHL
27.09.26	Tambov - Norilsk	4:1 ✺
25.09.26	Buran Voronezh - Norilsk	2:3 ✺
20.09.26	Norilsk - Omskie Krylia	3:0 ✺
18.09.26	Norilsk - Zauralie Kurgan	1:2 AET ✺
16.09.26	Norilsk - Rubin Tyumen	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 LWWLW

Latest Head to Head

VHL
16.01.26	Norilsk - Dizel Penza	0:3
07.11.25	Dizel Penza - Norilsk	2:1
06.03.25	Norilsk - Dizel Penza	0:2
19.09.24	Dizel Penza - Norilsk	1:3
14.02.24	Dizel Penza - Norilsk	0:5
06.09.23	Norilsk - Dizel Penza	2:4

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