Match Info

KHL

Date: 26 January 2026, Monday

Location: CSKA Arena (Moscow)


	HC CSKA Moscow		Severstal Cherepovets

	1	X	2
	2.17	3.54	2.88
	2.24	4.07	2.95	Watch
	2.2	4	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.2 ↑ (2.09)	3.87 ↓ (4.31)	2.86 ↓ (3.12)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.00

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

HC CSKA Moscow
42.7%

Draw
24.3%

Severstal Cherepovets
32.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.4%

22.5%

31.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.5%

22%

30.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

HC CSKA Moscow has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

Severstal Cherepovets has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for HC CSKA Moscow than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Severstal Cherepovets than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	16.7%	66.7%

HC CSKA Moscow - Severstal Cherepovets Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. CSKA will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Severstal will win (votes: 4 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Severstal (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Line 1
33. Gamzin D. (G)	1. Shostak K. (G)
98. Hollowell M.	32. Gregoire T.
89. Nesterov N. (A)	8. Kaldis Y.
19. Drozdov I.	42. Tankov K.
15. Karnaukhov P. (C)	53. Aimurzin D.
97. Churkin A.	99. Ilyin M.
Line 2
28. Patrikhayev I.	7. Burenov N.
79. Roy J.	75. Davydov T.
69. Maistrenko O.	23. Liska A. (C)
16. Zernov D.	17. Abrosimov R. (A)
34. Gurianov D.	51. Kvochko I.
Line 3
55. Okhotyuk N.	16. Vashchenko G.
5. Samorukov D.	21. Kamalov N.
11. Abramov V.	97. Chebykin N.
27. Sorkin M. (A)	6. Ivantsov I.
13. Poltapov P.	12. Skorenov A.
Line 4
88. Yeryomenko V.	77. Fomin M.
63. Mingachyov T.	2. Grudinin V.
23. Gardner R.	88. Dumbadze D. (A)
21. Kalinin S.	66. Podshivalov I.
	37. Reingardt I.
Substitutes
32. Samonov A. (G)	30. Skotnikov V. (G)
77. Solovyov Y.
Coaches
. Nikitin I.	. Kozyrev A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (2 - 1)
02:37, 1 - 0, Karnaukhov P. (G), Drozdov I. (A), Patrikhayev I. (A2)
10:51, 2 - 0, Gurianov D. (G),
10:51, Shostak K. ↓, Skotnikov V. ↑,
15:37, 2 - 1, Tankov K. (G), Aimurzin D. (A), Ilyin M. (A2)
2nd Period (0 - 0)
16:33, Gurianov D. (5 min),
3rd Period (2 - 1)
02:13, Reingardt I. (5 min),
12:24, Grudinin V. (2 min),
15:36, 3 - 1, Drozdov I. (G), Patrikhayev I. (A),
18:23, 4 - 1, Abramov V. (G), Zernov D. (A), Drozdov I. (A2)
19:17, 4 - 2, Tankov K. (G), Ilyin M. (A), Aimurzin D. (A2)

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ KHL (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ KHL (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, CSKA won 3.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Severstal may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, CSKA won 11 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 67:53. (average 3.4:2.7).

Including home matches between the teams, CSKA won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 34:21. (average 3.4:2.1).

Outrights of KHL for now

CSKA Moscow: 13.3%

Last Results with these Odds

Severstal Cherepovets - the odds 3.12 are the expected chance of winning is 31.09%, but this team recently wins 54% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- HC CSKA Moscow
KHL
22.01.26	HC CSKA Moscow - Barys Astana	1:0 ✺
17.01.26	Barys Astana - HC CSKA Moscow	3:1 ✺
15.01.26	Avangard Omsk - HC CSKA Moscow	2:1 ✺
11.01.26	HC CSKA Moscow - Spartak Moscow	2:1 ✺
09.01.26	HC CSKA Moscow - Shanghai Dragons	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 WLLWW
- Severstal Cherepovets
KHL
21.01.26	Sochi - Severstal Cherepovets	4:5 OT ✺
19.01.26	Dynamo Moscow - Severstal Cherepovets	5:4 penalties ✺
15.01.26	Severstal Cherepovets - Dinamo Minsk	6:4 ✺
13.01.26	Severstal Cherepovets - Sibir Novosibirsk	2:3 ✺
10.01.26	Severstal Cherepovets - Torpedo Nizhny Novgorod	7:6 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

KHL
23.12.25	Severstal Cherepovets - HC CSKA Moscow	3:1
16.11.25	Severstal Cherepovets - HC CSKA Moscow	4:3 OT
10.11.25	HC CSKA Moscow - Severstal Cherepovets	2:0
05.10.25	HC CSKA Moscow - Severstal Cherepovets	3:2
14.09.25	Severstal Cherepovets - HC CSKA Moscow	1:2
06.02.25	HC CSKA Moscow - Severstal Cherepovets	3:4
30.01.25	HC CSKA Moscow - Severstal Cherepovets	6:1

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