Match Info

Liiga

Date: 19 February 2026, Thursday

Location: Pohjantahti-Areena (Hämeenlinna)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	MTV Katsomo+
Sweden	TV4 Play


	HPK		KalPa

	1	X	2
	1.65	4	4.75
	1.72	4.26	4.21	Watch
	1.7	4.34	3.94
	1.71	4.36	4	Watch
	1.67	4	3.7
	1.71	4.33	4.05	Watch
	1.71	4	4.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.7 ↓ (2.39)	4.18 ↑ (3.68)	4.13 ↑ (2.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.00

The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

HPK
55.1%

Draw
22.3%

KalPa
22.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.1%

25.4%

35.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.1%

26.1%

34.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

HPK has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+16%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in HPK's performance.

KalPa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and KalPa might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for HPK than the current prediction. (-15%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with HPK that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for KalPa than the current prediction. (+12%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that KalPa could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	22.2%	44.4%

HPK - KalPa Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. HPK will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%). KalPa will win (votes: 4 - 44.4%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for KalPa: 11.9% – 76.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. HPK (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - HPK (1.21) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. HPK (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Line 1
1. Saarinen K. (G)	47. Boyko T. (G)
43. Kukkonen M.	8. Ruotsalainen V.
4. Jokirinne V.	97. Kanak L.
16. Wright C.	20. Klemetti A.
12. Paivarinta S.	12. Saarelainen J.
94. Hakulinen A. (A)	46. Soderlund T.
Line 2
20. Pyke G.	52. Tornberg A.
74. Nikkila P. (C)	7. Mononen V.
88. Kiiskinen J.	72. Nyman L.
15. Korhonen O.	86. Kombe K.
11. Caron T.	42. Kapanen K. (A)
Line 3
63. Eronen E.	89. Ketola J.
5. Andzans A.	3. Karlsson A. (A)
25. Huttunen H.	15. Korkiakoski T.
64. Kainulainen H. (A)	14. Lantta J. (C)
10. Vesterinen R.	41. Kononen J.
Line 4
3. Kangas K.	5. Hintikka J.
50. Skinnari A.	48. Timofejev D.
23. Loponen M.	25. Pakarinen R.
44. Kopiloff O.	39. Mykra O.
Substitutes
33. Vayrynen M. (G)	31. Kerkola P. (G)
Coaches
. Manner M.	. Tervonen S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 1)
00:20, 0 - 1, Saarelainen J. (G), Ruotsalainen V. (A), Soderlund T. (A2)
13:54, Lantta J. (2 min),
13:54, Wright C. (2 min),
2nd Period (1 - 0)
09:04, Ruotsalainen V. (2 min),
09:04, Kangas K. (2 min),
15:50, 1 - 1, Jokirinne V. (G), Wright C. (A), Paivarinta S. (A2)
18:34, Lantta J. (2 min),
3rd Period (0 - 0)
14:59, Kononen J. (2 min),
Overtime (0 - 0)
Penalties (1 - 0)
1, Caron T. (Penalty Shot),
1, Kapanen K. (Penalty Shot),
2, Wright C. (Penalty Shot),
2, Kononen J. (Penalty Shot),
3, Hakulinen A. (Penalty Shot),
3, Soderlund T. (Penalty Shot),

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 13 and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, HPK won 2.

In recent matches, HPK has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

KalPa is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

KalPa may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, HPK won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 14 matches, and goals 46:62. (average 2.3:3.1).

Including home matches between the teams, HPK won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 30:27. (average 3:2.7).

Outrights of Finnish SM-liiga for now

Hameenlinna: 2.23%

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
10	Hameenlinna	12	4	3	0	5	28:35	18
13	KalPa	11	4	0	1	6	27:29	13

Last Results with these Odds

HPK - the odds 2.39 are the expected chance of winning is 39.09%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

KalPa - the odds 2.63 are the expected chance of winning is 35.52%, but this team recently wins 28% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- HPK Hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
17.02.26	Vaasan Sport - HPK	0:4 ✺
14.02.26	HPK - KooKoo	2:4 ✺
13.02.26	KooKoo - HPK	7:3 ✺
10.02.26	TPS - HPK	3:1 ✺
07.02.26	HPK - Ässät	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WLLLW
- KalPa hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
14.02.26	Kärpät - KalPa	3:1 ✺
13.02.26	Kärpät - KalPa	2:5 ✺
10.02.26	KalPa - Pelicans	5:3 ✺
07.02.26	KalPa - Mikkelin Jukurit	2:0 ✺
06.02.26	Mikkelin Jukurit - KalPa	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Finnish SM-liiga
22.01.26	KalPa - HPK	3:1
13.12.25	HPK - KalPa	1:2
26.11.25	KalPa - HPK	4:1
24.01.25	KalPa - HPK	1:4
20.12.24	HPK - KalPa	2:1
27.11.24	HPK - KalPa	3:4 OT
16.10.24	KalPa - HPK	3:2

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