Match Info

Liiga

Date: 3 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Pohjantahti-Areena (Hämeenlinna)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	MTV Katsomo+
Sweden	TV4 Play


	HPK		Mikkelin Jukurit

	1	X	2
	2.3	4	2.6
	2.41	3.81	2.67
	2.33	4.11	2.63	Watch
	2.25	3.6	2.5
	2.34	3.96	2.58	Watch
	2.45	3.75	2.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.35 ↑ (2.16)	3.87 ↑ (3.66)	2.6 ↓ (3.11)

The most likely Over/Under: 4.75

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

HPK
39.8%

Draw
24.1%

Mikkelin Jukurit
36%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.8%

25.8%

30.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.4%

29.7%

26.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

HPK has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

Mikkelin Jukurit has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Mikkelin Jukurit's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for HPK than the current prediction. (+10.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for HPK, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mikkelin Jukurit than the current prediction. (-9.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Mikkelin Jukurit, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

HPK - Mikkelin Jukurit Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Line 1
33. Karhunen T. (G)	29. Buitenhuis E. (G)
63. Eronen E. (A)	53. Korkola N.
74. Nikkila P. (C)	3. Arola J.
16. Wright C.	10. Olsen T.
12. Paivarinta S.	16. Ford C. (A)
15. Korhonen O.	76. Hamalainen S.
Line 2
43. Kukkonen M.	58. Johansson K.
4. Jokirinne V.	70. Saari E.
50. Skinnari A.	54. Piitulainen J. (C)
64. Kainulainen H. (A)	89. Tammela J.
8. Alitalo V.	52. Hynninen T.
Line 3
51. Ketonen A.	71. Romppanen N.
6. Sertti L.	7. Worge Kreu W.
44. Kopiloff O.	82. Ruuttu A. (A)
25. Huttunen H.	20. Addamo J.
19. Rautiainen T.	40. Boudon L.
Line 4
3. Kangas K.	19. Tiihonen L.
81. Aaltonen S.	96. Frilander J.
23. Loponen M.	18. Sandvik V.
92. Makinen I.	63. Heikkinen L.
Substitutes
29. Sinclair M. (G)	1. Herpin M. (G)
Coaches
. Manner M.	. Virtanen J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 0)
2nd Period (2 - 0)
05:47, Kukkonen M. (2 min),
11:55, 1 - 0, Kukkonen M. (G), Jokirinne V. (A), Huttunen H. (A2)
14:13, 2 - 0, Paivarinta S. (G), Kukkonen M. (A), Wright C. (A2)
18:08, Ford C. (2 min),
3rd Period (1 - 1)
07:29, Ruuttu A. (2 min),
15:48, Alitalo V. (2 min),
18:39, 2 - 1, Olsen T. (G), Tammela J. (A),
19:49, 3 - 1, Rautiainen T. (G), Kukkonen M. (A),

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 15 and 11 in the zone Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, HPK won 3.

HPK is on a losing streak (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Jukurit has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

HPK may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, HPK won 12 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 58:59. (average 2.9:3).

Including home matches between the teams, HPK won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 26:18. (average 2.9:2).

Outrights of Finnish SM-liiga for now

Jukurit: 2.24% Hameenlinna: 2.23%

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
2	Jukurit	13	6	2	0	5	34:28	22
12	Hameenlinna	11	3	3	0	5	23:32	15

Last Results with these Odds

Mikkelin Jukurit - the odds 3.11 are the expected chance of winning is 30.4%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- HPK Hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
30.12.25	HPK - JYP	2:3 OT ✺
27.12.25	Ässät - HPK	4:3 OT ✺
26.12.25	HPK - Ilves	3:8 ✺
20.12.25	Lukko - HPK	4:2 ✺
19.12.25	HPK - JYP	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Mikkelin Jukurit
Finnish SM-liiga
30.12.25	Mikkelin Jukurit - Pelicans	5:3 ✺
20.12.25	Kärpät - Mikkelin Jukurit	3:2 penalties ✺
17.12.25	Mikkelin Jukurit - Vaasan Sport	4:0 ✺
11.12.25	TPS - Mikkelin Jukurit	3:1 ✺
09.12.25	Ässät - Mikkelin Jukurit	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Finnish SM-liiga
27.09.25	Mikkelin Jukurit - HPK	1:3
30.11.24	HPK - Mikkelin Jukurit	3:0
10.09.24	Mikkelin Jukurit - HPK	7:3
01.02.24	Mikkelin Jukurit - HPK	7:1
19.12.23	HPK - Mikkelin Jukurit	3:2
13.10.23	Mikkelin Jukurit - HPK	3:4 OT
20.09.23	HPK - Mikkelin Jukurit	1:4

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