Match Info

Liiga

Date: 27 February 2026, Friday

Location: Pohjantahti-Areena (Hämeenlinna)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	MTV Katsomo+


	HPK		SaiPa

	1	X	2
	2.25	4.2	2.6
	2.42	3.7	2.7	Watch
	2.39	3.96	2.5
	2.57	4.01	2.35	Watch
	2.25	3.8	2.4
	2.39	4.05	2.49	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.38 ↓ (2.7)	3.95 ↓ (4.09)	2.51 ↑ (2.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.25

The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

HPK
39.2%

Draw
23.6%

SaiPa
37.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.6%

22.9%

42.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.8%

24.3%

40%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

HPK has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)

SaiPa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and SaiPa might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for HPK than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for SaiPa than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
28.6%	28.6%	42.9%

HPK - SaiPa Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. HPK will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). SaiPa will win (votes: 3 - 42.9%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - HPK (2.04) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. HPK (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Line 1
1. Saarinen K. (G)	33. Karhunen T. (G)
43. Kukkonen M.	50. Salminen S. (A)
4. Jokirinne V.	26. Kivihalme T.
16. Wright C.	25. Kuusla E.
12. Paivarinta S.	15. Salomaki M.
94. Hakulinen A. (A)	51. Kalapudas A.
Line 2
20. Pyke G.	14. Kramer B.
74. Nikkila P. (C)	55. Trejbal O.
88. Kiiskinen J.	41. Fortier M.
15. Korhonen O.	82. Nikkanen H.
11. Caron T.	10. Kivenmaki O.
Line 3
63. Eronen E.	6. Airola S.
5. Andzans A.	7. Niinisaari S. (C)
25. Huttunen H.	75. Siikanen P.
64. Kainulainen H. (A)	12. Bau S.
10. Vesterinen R.	62. Tauslahti M.
Line 4
3. Kangas K.	22. Aho K.
50. Skinnari A.	81. Klintrup E.
8. Alitalo V.	21. Appelgren N. (A)
44. Kopiloff O.	18. Heikkila J.
Substitutes
33. Vayrynen M. (G)	31. Grigals G. (G)
Coaches
. Manner M.	. Helminen R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (1 - 1)
07:24, Nikkanen H. (2 min),
09:50, Andzans A. (2 min),
10:23, 0 - 1, Nikkanen H. (G), Airola S. (A), Kivenmaki O. (A2)
15:33, 1 - 1, Hakulinen A. (G), Paivarinta S. (A),
16:22, Klintrup E. (2 min),
19:53, Kukkonen M. (2 min),
2nd Period (0 - 0)
04:09, (2 min),
05:55, Salomaki M. (2 min),
08:13, (2 min),
12:18, Andzans A. (2 min),
18:48, Kivenmaki O. (2 min),
3rd Period (0 - 4)
01:56, 1 - 2, Nikkanen H. (G), Fortier M. (A),
07:38, 1 - 3, Nikkanen H. (G), Fortier M. (A), Kivihalme T. (A2)
09:16, Aho K. (2 min),
13:08, 1 - 4, Salomaki M. (G), Kalapudas A. (A),
14:56, 1 - 5, Appelgren N. (G), Klintrup E. (A),
16:18, Salomaki M. (2 min),
18:30, (2 min),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, HPK won 1.

Recent performances by HPK have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

SaiPa is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 5 wins).

SaiPa may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, HPK won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 15 matches, and goals 48:60. (average 2.4:3).

Including home matches between the teams, HPK won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 22:33. (average 2:3).

Outrights of Finnish SM-liiga for now

Saipa: 3.72% Hameenlinna: 1.94%

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
10	Hameenlinna	12	4	3	0	5	28:35	18

Last Results with these Odds

HPK - the odds 2.7 are the expected chance of winning is 34.63%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

SaiPa - the odds 2.2 are the expected chance of winning is 42.5%, but this team recently wins 30% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- HPK Hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
19.02.26	HPK - KalPa	2:1 penalties ✺
17.02.26	Vaasan Sport - HPK	0:4 ✺
14.02.26	HPK - KooKoo	2:4 ✺
13.02.26	KooKoo - HPK	7:3 ✺
10.02.26	TPS - HPK	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 WWLLL
- SaiPa hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
25.02.26	TPS - SaiPa	1:3 ✺
21.02.26	SaiPa - KooKoo	6:2 ✺
15.02.26	Ässät - SaiPa	3:4 OT ✺
14.02.26	SaiPa - HIFK	5:3 ✺
11.02.26	SaiPa - Ässät	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.3 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Finnish SM-liiga
10.10.25	HPK - SaiPa	1:2
01.10.25	SaiPa - HPK	3:2 OT
14.03.25	HPK - SaiPa	2:3
19.02.25	SaiPa - HPK	3:5
05.12.24	HPK - SaiPa	1:5
28.11.24	SaiPa - HPK	3:2 OT
09.03.24	SaiPa - HPK	7:0

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