Match Info

Liiga

Date: 27 September 2026, Sunday

Location: Tampere Deck Arena (Tampere)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	MTV Katsomo+
Sweden	TV4 Play


	Ilves		TPS

	1	X	2
	1.86	4.25	3.3
	1.70	4.40	3.75
	1.9	4.05	3.5	Watch
	1.91	4.19	3.24
	1.88	3.96	3.56
	1.89	4.1	3.2
	1.85	4.2	3.52	Watch
	1.88	4	3.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.86 ↑ (1.72)	4.14 ↓ (4.35)	3.43 ↓ (3.83)

The most likely Over/Under: 4.75

The best margin for this event is 5.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ilves
50.2%

Draw
22.5%

TPS
27.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

54.2%

21.5%

24.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.1%

22.8%

25.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ilves has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

TPS has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ilves than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for TPS than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

Ilves - TPS Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Line 1
65. Rifalk C. (G)	32. Vali N. (G)
27. Strand A.	38. Landen A.
57. Parikka J.	61. Binner A.
29. Looke J.	49. Wernblom L.
92. Henman L. (A)	97. Haudum L.
15. Kos O.	86. Yliniemi S.
Line 2
43. Latvala O.	2. Tuhkala A.
6. Sund T.	40. Lehtonen S.
67. Haatanen A.	25. Ikonen Jo.
44. Jarvinen J. (C)	13. Paajanen O. (C)
46. Torok M.	22. Bryggman L. (A)
Line 3
77. Loof L.	6. Rafkin R. (A)
28. Nyberg J.	44. Lindbohm P.
38. Teuho-Markkola T.	9. Koivu A.
19. Lantta J.	21. Maatta J.
71. Korhonen B.	24. Virtanen J.
Line 4
3. Utunen T.	7. Lauridsen O.
26. Niskanen A.	10. Ylitalo N.
86. Heikkinen I.	47. Kuru H.
11. Borg E. (A)	57. Munkki V.
22. Engberg T.
Substitutes
40. Armalis M. (G)	84. Pikkarainen K.
	30. Ruusu M. (G)
Coaches
. Niemela T.	. Soderholm T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 0)
07:18, Sund T. (2 min),
2nd Period (1 - 1)
00:35, 0 - 1, Wernblom L. (G), Lindbohm P. (A), Haudum L. (A2)
03:25, Korhonen B. (2 min),
05:54, Kuru H. (2 min),
09:50, 1 - 1, Henman L. (G), Strand A. (A),
11:51, Loof L. (2 min),
11:51, Virtanen J. (2 min),
11:51, Nyberg J. (2 min),
11:51, Koivu A. (2 min),
20:00, Landen A. (2 min),
3rd Period (2 - 1)
01:10, Lindbohm P. (2 min),
15:01, 2 - 1, Strand A. (G), Haatanen A. (A), Jarvinen J. (A2)
18:25, Lantta J. (2 min),
18:52, 3 - 1, Strand A. (G), Henman L. (A),
19:44, 3 - 2, Bryggman L. (G), Paajanen O. (A), Haudum L. (A2)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ilves won 4.

Ilves has displayed good consistency in recent games (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

TPS has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Ilves could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Recently, Ilves has faced a series of away games on the road.

Ilves is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

Our forecast points to a victory for Ilves in today's match, at odds of 1.81.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Ilves has recorded 11 wins, 0 draws, and 9 losses, with a goal aggregate of 51:43 (averaging 2.6:2.2 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Ilves against this opponent, the record stands at 8 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with 29:18 goals (averaging 2.9:1.8 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
1	Ilves	14	8	2	0	4	41:30	28
7	TPS Turku	14	7	1	1	5	41:32	24

Outrights of Finnish SM-liiga for now

TPS Turku: 3.34%

Last Results with these Odds

Ilves - the odds 1.72 are the expected chance of winning is 54.17%, but this team recently wins 47% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ilves hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
25.09.26	Ilves - KooKoo	6:0 ✺
18.09.26	KalPa - Ilves	1:2 ✺
16.09.26	Kärpät - Ilves	3:4 OT ✺
08.09.26	HPK - Ilves	0:4 ✺
04.09.26	Ässät - Ilves	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.4 WWWWL
- TPS hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
25.09.26	Jokerit - TPS	1:2 ✺
19.09.26	HPK - TPS	3:1 ✺
17.09.26	TPS - Tappara	4:0 ✺
15.09.26	TPS - Mikkelin Jukurit	1:4 ✺
09.09.26	Vaasan Sport - TPS	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Finnish SM-liiga
07.03.26	TPS - Ilves	1:4
03.01.26	Ilves - TPS	5:2
18.10.25	TPS - Ilves	4:3 OT
17.10.25	Ilves - TPS	4:3 OT
Club Friendly Ice Hockey
22.08.25	Ilves - TPS	3:2 penalties
Finnish SM-liiga
25.01.25	Ilves - TPS	1:0
13.12.24	TPS - Ilves	3:2

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