Match Info

Liiga

Date: 25 September 2026, Friday

Location: Veikkaus Arena (Helsinki)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	MTV Katsomo+
Sweden	TV4 Play


	Jokerit		TPS

	1	X	2
	2.65	4.00	2.20
	2.65	3.90	2.25
	2.65	3.95	2.30	Watch
	2.71	3.88	2.25
	2.65	4.06	2.25	Watch
	2.65	3.80	2.20
	2.67	4.10	2.25	Watch
	2.65	3.90	2.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.66 ↑ (2.63)	3.95 ↓ (4)	2.24 (2.24)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.25

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jokerit
35%

Draw
23.6%

TPS
41.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.3%

23.2%

41.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.4%

25.9%

37.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jokerit has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

TPS has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jokerit than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for TPS than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

Jokerit - TPS Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:3

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Lineups

Line 1
32. Karhunen T. (G)	36. Makiniemi E. (G)
98. Larsen O.	38. Landen A.
53. Elorinne A. (A)	61. Binner A.
71. Curry P. (A)	49. Wernblom L. (A)
11. Virta P.	97. Haudum L.
74. Henriksson J.	86. Yliniemi S.
Line 2
4. Caito M.	2. Tuhkala A.
12. Tumanovs M.	40. Lehtonen S.
82. Tuulola E.	25. Ikonen Jo.
28. Nikkanen H.	13. Paajanen O. (C)
7. Fortier M.	24. Virtanen J.
Line 3
43. Krogdahl M.	6. Rafkin R. (A)
47. Forsblom S.	44. Lindbohm P.
21. Kalapudas A.	9. Koivu A.
92. Mustonen A.	21. Maatta J.
22. Forslund A.	10. Ylitalo N.
Line 4
55. Pulli V.	4. Chicoine G.
52. Tuomola R.	90. Uusikartano A.
29. Kallio B.	84. Pikkarainen K.
19. Nalli M.	47. Kuru H.
33. Hannikainen M. (C)	57. Munkki V.
Substitutes
30. Vehvilainen V. (G)	32. Vali N. (G)
Coaches
. Valtonen T.	. Soderholm T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 0)
05:40, Chicoine G. (2 min),
15:09, Munkki V. (2 min),
2nd Period (0 - 1)
06:13, Krogdahl M. (2 min),
09:30, Curry P. (2 min),
15:36, 0 - 1, Maatta J. (G), Ylitalo N. (A), Rafkin R. (A2)
19:17, Tumanovs M. (2 min),
3rd Period (1 - 1)
03:42, Yliniemi S. (2 min),
16:00, (2 min),
17:55, 0 - 2, Paajanen O. (G), Ylitalo N. (A), Tuhkala A. (A2)
19:12, 1 - 2, Tuomola R. (G), Virta P. (A), Fortier M. (A2)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Jokerit won 3.

Recent results have been tough for Jokerit (last 5 matches: 1 win).

TPS has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Jokerit may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 15 head-to-head meetings, Jokerit has recorded 11 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses, with a goal aggregate of 53:34 (averaging 3.5:2.3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Jokerit against this opponent, the record stands at 6 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with 20:9 goals (averaging 3.3:1.5 per game).

Outrights of Finnish SM-liiga for now

Jokerit: 3.58% TPS Turku: 3.47%

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
11	TPS Turku	10	5	0	0	5	26:21	15
16	Jokerit	12	2	1	2	7	25:39	10

Last Results with these Odds

TPS - the odds 2.24 are the expected chance of winning is 41.42%, but this team recently wins 28% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jokerit hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
22.09.26	Jokerit - Pelicans	3:0 ✺
19.09.26	Jokerit - Tappara	0:6 ✺
17.09.26	Jokerit - JYP	2:4 ✺
09.09.26	Ässät - Jokerit	3:2 ✺
05.09.26	Lukko - Jokerit	7:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 WLLLL
- TPS hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
19.09.26	HPK - TPS	3:1 ✺
17.09.26	TPS - Tappara	4:0 ✺
15.09.26	TPS - Mikkelin Jukurit	1:4 ✺
09.09.26	Vaasan Sport - TPS	2:1 ✺
05.09.26	TPS - HIFK	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 LWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly Ice Hockey
25.08.26	TPS - Jokerit	4:2
Finnish Pitsiturnaus
07.08.26	TPS - Jokerit	3:2
Club Friendly Ice Hockey
26.08.20	TPS - Jokerit	2:4
12.08.14	TPS - Jokerit	3:5
Finnish SM-liiga
26.02.14	Jokerit - TPS	5:2
25.01.14	TPS - Jokerit	1:7
13.12.13	Jokerit - TPS	3:2 penalties

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