Match Info

Liiga

Date: 16 January 2026, Friday

Location: Oulun Energia Areena (Oulu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	MTV 3, MTV Katsomo+
Sweden	TV4 Play


	Kärpät		Lukko

	1	X	2
	3	4.5	1.95
	2.99	4.06	2.12	Watch
	2.87	3.92	2.17	Watch
	2.75	3.8	2.05
	2.8	4.15	2.15	Watch
	3.2	3.85	2.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.94 ↓ (2.98)	4.05 ↑ (3.73)	2.08 ↓ (2.14)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.50

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kärpät
31.9%

Draw
23.1%

Lukko
45%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.3%

25%

43.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.2%

26.5%

41.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kärpät has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

Lukko has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kärpät than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lukko than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

Kärpät - Lukko Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Lukko (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Lukko (1.37) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Lukko (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:3

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Lineups

Line 1
41. Rubin N. (G)	32. Raanta A. (G)
47. Bjork M.	9. Stenqvist J.
26. Tichacek J.	38. Almari N.
38. Raty Aku	6. Tuuva L.
33. Hirvonen R.	93. Ruohomaa M.
12. Stalberg S.	24. Krannila J.
Line 2
55. Ohtamaa A.	86. Gelinas E.
4. Ruotsalainen V.	5. Peters A.
93. Kantner M.	90. Hamalainen L.
19. Tikka T.	88. Morand A.
73. Erholtz E.	18. Jandric S.
Line 3
27. Jonsson S.	34. Viitasalo N.
25. Paaso A.	56. Olsson A.
16. Heikkala V.	27. Westerholm Po.
13. Junttila J.	17. Westerholm Pa.
18. Antti-Roiko A.	25. Saarela A.
Line 4
61. Salmela T.	43. Valila A.
22. Nikupeteri O.	47. Haapanen T.
28. Ojantakanen K.	14. Intonen A.
59. Hermonen J.	48. Ikonen H.
Substitutes
31. Vedenpaa V. (G)	30. Salonen D. (G)
Coaches
. Karjalainen P.	. Lamsa T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (3 - 1)
00:56, Bjork M. (2 min),
03:10, Intonen A. (2 min),
03:18, 1 - 0, Hirvonen R. (G), Erholtz E. (A), Raty Aku (A2)
07:51, 2 - 0, Heikkala V. (G), Tichacek J. (A), Junttila J. (A2)
08:12, 3 - 0, Hermonen J. (G), Nikupeteri O. (A), Ruotsalainen V. (A2)
08:12, Raanta A. ↓, Salonen D. ↑,
09:41, (2 min),
11:44, 3 - 1, Westerholm Po. (G), Saarela A. (A), Ruohomaa M. (A2)
17:52, Peters A. (2 min),
19:29, Tikka T. (2 min),
19:29, Westerholm Po. (2 min),
2nd Period (1 - 2)
02:34, Salmela T. (2 min),
03:35, 4 - 1, Tichacek J. (G),
05:39, Junttila J. (2 min),
05:39, Junttila J. (2 min),
05:56, 4 - 2, Westerholm Po. (G), Saarela A. (A), Ruohomaa M. (A2)
06:33, 4 - 3, Saarela A. (G), Ruohomaa M. (A), Tuuva L. (A2)
3rd Period (0 - 1)
15:44, 4 - 4, Morand A. (G), Stenqvist J. (A), Valila A. (A2)
Overtime (1 - 0)
03:01, 5 - 4, Raty Aku (G), Tichacek J. (A), Rubin N. (A2)

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 15 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Kärpät won 1.

Kärpät has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Lukko is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Kärpät may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Lukko could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Kärpät won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 17 matches, and goals 44:71. (average 2.2:3.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Kärpät won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 24:34. (average 2.4:3.4).

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
4	Karpat	13	5	2	3	3	35:34	22
6	Lukko	11	6	1	0	4	29:23	20

Last Results with these Odds

Kärpät - the odds 2.98 are the expected chance of winning is 31.33%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Lukko - the odds 2.14 are the expected chance of winning is 43.63%, but this team recently wins 36% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kärpat Oulu
Finnish SM-liiga
14.01.26	Kärpät - SaiPa	1:2 ✺
10.01.26	TPS - Kärpät	2:3 ✺
09.01.26	Lukko - Kärpät	4:1 ✺
07.01.26	Ässät - Kärpät	4:3 ✺
03.01.26	Kärpät - Vaasan Sport	6:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 LWLLW
- Lukko Hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
13.01.26	Lukko - Pelicans	4:3 OT ✺
09.01.26	Lukko - Kärpät	4:1 ✺
07.01.26	Lukko - SaiPa	3:4 ✺
05.01.26	Mikkelin Jukurit - Lukko	1:2 ✺
27.12.25	Pelicans - Lukko	1:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Finnish SM-liiga
09.01.26	Lukko - Kärpät	4:1
10.12.25	Lukko - Kärpät	5:2
24.09.25	Kärpät - Lukko	5:7
28.02.25	Lukko - Kärpät	2:1
14.12.24	Kärpät - Lukko	5:4
20.11.24	Kärpät - Lukko	3:4
21.09.24	Lukko - Kärpät	6:2

Kärpät - Lukko: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide