Match Info

Liiga

Date: 28 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Kivikylan Areena (Rauma)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	MTV Katsomo+


	Lukko		Pelicans

	1	X	2
	1.46	5.25	5.25
	1.58	4.55	5.25	Watch
	1.39	5.38	5.99
	1.42	5.09	6	Watch
	1.4	4.6	5.5
	1.41	5.3	6.06	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.44 ↓ (1.55)	5.03 ↑ (4.7)	5.68 ↑ (4.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.25

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lukko
64.9%

Draw
18.6%

Pelicans
16.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.3%

19.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.7%

21.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lukko has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)

Pelicans has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lukko than the current prediction. (-8.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Lukko that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pelicans than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

Lukko - Pelicans Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 4:1

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Lineups

Line 1
32. Raanta A. (G)	1. Emond Z. (G)
9. Stenqvist J.	4. Johannesen J.
38. Almari N.	47. Jordan M. (A)
16. Beaucage A.	37. Dudas A.
93. Ruohomaa M. (A)	95. Batna O.
24. Krannila J.	10. Karvinen R.
Line 2
86. Gelinas E. (C)	77. Kayhko O.
5. Peters A.	61. Jurgens C. (C)
88. Morand A.	74. Teutari E.
14. Intonen A.	23. Forsberg C. (A)
18. Jandric S.	82. Kettunen A.
Line 3
34. Viitasalo N.	87. Nieminen D.
56. Olsson A.	83. Luhanka E.
27. Westerholm Po.	28. Zetterberg L.
17. Westerholm Pa.	29. Vaananen M.
25. Saarela A.	96. Kumpula J.
Line 4
40. Daschke D.	55. Falk H.
48. Ikonen H. (A)	93. Nieminen K.
10. Joki A.	15. Pohjalainen A.
47. Haapanen T.	20. Hirvonen K.
Substitutes
30. Salonen D. (G)	32. Bartosak P. (G)
Coaches
. Lamsa T.	. Kapanen S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 0)
11:21, Falk H. (2 min),
18:56, Johannesen J. (2 min),
2nd Period (1 - 2)
01:00, 1 - 0, Ruohomaa M. (G), Beaucage A. (A), Stenqvist J. (A2)
02:14, 1 - 1, Kumpula J. (G),
07:46, 1 - 2, Batna O. (G), Jurgens C. (A), Karvinen R. (A2)
16:15, (2 min),
3rd Period (1 - 3)
01:32, Westerholm Pa. (2 min),
11:52, Jandric S. (2 min),
12:00, 1 - 3, Karvinen R. (G), Nieminen D. (A),
13:23, Zetterberg L. (2 min),
14:13, Beaucage A. (2 min),
14:13, 1 - 4, Karvinen R. (Penalty Shot),
15:25, 2 - 4, Morand A. (G), Saarela A. (A), Krannila J. (A2)
17:26, 2 - 5, Hirvonen K. (G), Teutari E. (A),

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 10 in the zone Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lukko won 3.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Pelicans may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Pelicans has had a series of home games.

In this match, Lukko is the team to beat.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Lukko won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 50:50. (average 2.5:2.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Lukko won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 21:22. (average 2.3:2.4).

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
6	Lukko	11	6	1	0	4	29:23	20
12	Pelicans	10	5	0	1	4	24:23	16

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lukko Hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
25.02.26	Lukko - Mikkelin Jukurit	2:1 ✺
18.02.26	Kiekko-Espoo - Lukko	2:3 OT ✺
17.02.26	Ilves - Lukko	3:2 ✺
14.02.26	Lukko - Tappara	1:4 ✺
13.02.26	HIFK - Lukko	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 WWLLW
- Pelicans Hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
27.02.26	Pelicans - Vaasan Sport	3:2 penalties ✺
25.02.26	Pelicans - Ilves	2:1 ✺
20.02.26	Pelicans - Tappara	4:3 ✺
17.02.26	Pelicans - Kärpät	0:5 ✺
14.02.26	JYP - Pelicans	3:2 OT ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.5 WWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Finnish SM-liiga
13.01.26	Lukko - Pelicans	4:3 OT
27.12.25	Pelicans - Lukko	1:5
11.10.25	Pelicans - Lukko	2:0
08.01.25	Pelicans - Lukko	2:5
21.12.24	Lukko - Pelicans	2:5
02.11.24	Lukko - Pelicans	1:3
20.09.24	Pelicans - Lukko	0:4

Lukko - Pelicans: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide