Match Info

Liiga

Date: 9 January 2026, Friday

Location: Kivikylan Areena (Rauma)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	MTV Katsomo+


	Lukko		Kärpät

	1	X	2
	1.48	5.25	5
	1.5	4.88	5.55
	1.46	5.14	5.36	Watch
	1.5	4.4	4.5
	1.54	4.9	4.8	Watch
	1.52	4.75	5.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.5 ↓ (1.72)	4.89 ↑ (4.59)	5.08 ↑ (3.87)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.75

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lukko
62.4%

Draw
19.2%

Kärpät
18.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55%

20.6%

24.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.7%

21.1%

25%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lukko has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Lukko's performance.

Kärpät has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Kärpät might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lukko than the current prediction. (-8.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Lukko that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kärpät than the current prediction. (+6.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Kärpät could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.5%	12.5%	0%

Lukko - Kärpät Predictions

Users Predictions: Lukko will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.58% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Lukko will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 4:1

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Lineups

Line 1
30. Salonen D. (G)	31. Vedenpaa V. (G)
9. Stenqvist J.	47. Bjork M. (A)
38. Almari N.	26. Tichacek J.
16. Beaucage A.	38. Raty Aku
93. Ruohomaa M. (A)	33. Hirvonen R.
24. Krannila J.	12. Stalberg S.
Line 2
86. Gelinas E. (C)	4. Ruotsalainen V.
5. Peters A.	55. Ohtamaa A. (C)
90. Hamalainen L.	93. Kantner M.
88. Morand A.	11. Virta P. (A)
18. Jandric S.	73. Erholtz E.
Line 3
34. Viitasalo N.	39. Juusola V.
56. Olsson A.	25. Paaso A.
27. Westerholm Po.	18. Antti-Roiko A.
17. Westerholm Pa.	19. Tikka T.
25. Saarela A.	13. Junttila J.
Line 4
15. Tukiainen J.	16. Heikkala V.
47. Haapanen T.	28. Ojantakanen K.
14. Intonen A.	59. Hermonen J.
48. Ikonen H. (A)
Substitutes
32. Raanta A. (G)	51. Pietila B.
	41. Rubin N. (G)
Coaches
. Lamsa T.	. Karjalainen P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 0)
11:18, Bjork M. (2 min),
15:57, (2 min),
2nd Period (2 - 0)
08:20, Jandric S. (2 min),
12:08, Hamalainen L. (2 min),
14:18, 1 - 0, Hamalainen L. (G), Westerholm Pa. (A),
15:39, Raty Aku (2 min),
16:04, 2 - 0, Stenqvist J. (G), Saarela A. (A), Ruohomaa M. (A2)
3rd Period (2 - 1)
09:32, 3 - 0, Westerholm Pa. (G), Saarela A. (A),
10:14, Tichacek J. (2 min),
11:33, 4 - 0, Viitasalo N. (G), Morand A. (A), Jandric S. (A2)
15:00, 4 - 1, Heikkala V. (G), Ojantakanen K. (A), Juusola V. (A2)

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 14).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lukko won 4.

Lukko is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Kärpät is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Lukko may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Lukko is seen as the favorite.

We predict that Lukko will win today's game, with odds of 1.69.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Lukko won 16 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 68:45. (average 3.4:2.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Lukko won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 33:19. (average 3.7:2.1).

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
4	Karpat	13	5	2	3	3	35:34	22
6	Lukko	11	6	1	0	4	29:23	20

Last Results with these Odds

Lukko - the odds 1.72 are the expected chance of winning is 54.97%, but this team recently wins 60% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lukko Hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
07.01.26	Lukko - SaiPa	3:4 ✺
05.01.26	Mikkelin Jukurit - Lukko	1:2 ✺
27.12.25	Pelicans - Lukko	1:5 ✺
26.12.25	Lukko - Vaasan Sport	2:1 OT ✺
20.12.25	Lukko - HPK	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 LWWWW
- Kärpat Oulu
Finnish SM-liiga
07.01.26	Ässät - Kärpät	4:3 ✺
03.01.26	Kärpät - Vaasan Sport	6:0 ✺
30.12.25	Ilves - Kärpät	3:2 OT ✺
27.12.25	Kärpät - JYP	2:4 ✺
26.12.25	JYP - Kärpät	5:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.6 LWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Finnish SM-liiga
10.12.25	Lukko - Kärpät	5:2
24.09.25	Kärpät - Lukko	5:7
28.02.25	Lukko - Kärpät	2:1
14.12.24	Kärpät - Lukko	5:4
20.11.24	Kärpät - Lukko	3:4
21.09.24	Lukko - Kärpät	6:2
30.01.24	Kärpät - Lukko	1:2 penalties

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