Match Info

Liiga

Date: 3 February 2026, Tuesday

Location: Olvi Areena (Kuopio)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	MTV Katsomo+


	KalPa		TPS

	1	X	2
	1.71	4.5	3.8
	1.82	4.2	3.77	Watch
	1.83	3.7	3.65
	1.83	3.92	3.81	Watch
	1.7	3.9	3.5
	1.83	4.25	3.56	Watch
	1.8	4	3.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.79 ↑ (1.75)	4.07 ↑ (3.94)	3.71 ↓ (4.07)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.25

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

KalPa
52%

Draw
22.9%

TPS
25.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.4%

23.7%

22.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.4%

24.6%

23.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

KalPa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

TPS has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for KalPa than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for TPS than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	25%	0%

KalPa - TPS Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. KalPa will win (votes: 3 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. KalPa (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Line 1
40. Lekkas S. (G)	36. Makiniemi E. (G)
6. Westerlund F.	38. Landen A.
97. Kanak L.	61. Binner A.
16. Okany A.	49. Wernblom L.
71. Curry P.	86. Yliniemi S.
20. Klemetti A.	82. Pakkila E.
Line 2
52. Tornberg A. (A)	2. Tuhkala A.
8. Ruotsalainen V.	7. Lauridsen O. (A)
22. Borchardt C.	87. Saarela A.
12. Saarelainen J.	26. Nassen L.
42. Kapanen K.	98. Teissala L.
Line 3
89. Ketola J.	4. Jokinen M.
3. Karlsson A.	66. Reunanen T. (C)
70. Hartikainen T. (C)	84. Pikkarainen K.
17. Korhonen B. (A)	20. Myllymaa K.
46. Soderlund T.	9. Koivu A.
Line 4
86. Kombe K.	5. Sjoholm V.
14. Lantta J.	88. Elo S.
41. Kononen J.	57. Munkki V.
	40. Lehtonen S.
Substitutes
47. Boyko T. (G)	30. Ruusu M. (G)
15. Korkiakoski T.
Coaches
. Tervonen S.	. Soderholm T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (1 - 1)
00:09, 0 - 1, Pakkila E. (G), Binner A. (A), Wernblom L. (A2)
00:26, 1 - 1, Ruotsalainen V. (G), Kapanen K. (A), Saarelainen J. (A2)
05:50, Binner A. (2 min),
2nd Period (4 - 1)
01:49, Borchardt C. (2 min),
04:40, 2 - 1, Curry P. (G),
10:25, 3 - 1, Okany A. (G), Klemetti A. (A), Curry P. (A2)
13:20, 3 - 2, Koivu A. (G), Landen A. (A), Nassen L. (A2)
14:55, Saarelainen J. (2 min),
14:55, Koivu A. (2 min),
15:06, Lehtonen S. (2 min),
17:20, 4 - 2, Korhonen B. (G), Okany A. (A), Kanak L. (A2)
19:14, 5 - 2, Okany A. (G), Klemetti A. (A), Tornberg A. (A2)
3rd Period (2 - 1)
02:19, 5 - 3, Binner A. (G), Elo S. (A), Myllymaa K. (A2)
04:15, 6 - 3, Soderlund T. (G), Ketola J. (A), Karlsson A. (A2)
09:41, Wernblom L. (2 min),
11:15, Lauridsen O. (2 min),
11:15, Lauridsen O. (2 min),
11:35, 7 - 3, Ruotsalainen V. (G), Curry P. (A), Ketola J. (A2)

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 12 in the zone Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, KalPa won 2.

KalPa has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

TPS is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, KalPa is the team to beat.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, KalPa won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 57:43. (average 2.9:2.2).

Including home matches between the teams, KalPa won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 27:19. (average 3:2.1).

Outrights of Finnish SM-liiga for now

TPS Turku: 3.42%

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
11	TPS Turku	11	5	0	1	5	29:25	16
13	KalPa	11	4	0	1	6	27:29	13

Last Results with these Odds

KalPa - the odds 1.75 are the expected chance of winning is 53.36%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- KalPa hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
31.01.26	Ilves - KalPa	3:1 ✺
30.01.26	KalPa - Ässät	2:3 OT ✺
27.01.26	TPS - KalPa	3:2 OT ✺
24.01.26	KalPa - JYP	1:0 penalties ✺
22.01.26	KalPa - HPK	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 LLLWW
- TPS hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
31.01.26	KooKoo - TPS	5:1 ✺
30.01.26	JYP - TPS	2:1 OT ✺
27.01.26	TPS - KalPa	3:2 OT ✺
24.01.26	Tappara - TPS	4:3 ✺
23.01.26	TPS - Pelicans	3:4 OT ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Finnish SM-liiga
27.01.26	TPS - KalPa	3:2 OT
10.10.25	KalPa - TPS	3:4 penalties
20.09.25	TPS - KalPa	0:3
12.03.25	KalPa - TPS	1:0
15.01.25	TPS - KalPa	3:2 OT
20.11.24	TPS - KalPa	1:3
21.09.24	KalPa - TPS	5:0

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