Match Info

Liiga

Date: 27 January 2026, Tuesday

Location: Gatorade Center (Turku)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 1


	TPS		KalPa

	1	X	2
	2.5	4	2.35
	2.54	4	2.3
	2.63	3.9	2.4	Watch
	2.56	3.53	2.42
	2.52	4.09	2.37	Watch
	2.45	3.6	2.3
	2.49	4.1	2.38	Watch
	2.55	3.6	2.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.53 ↓ (2.54)	3.85 ↑ (3.63)	2.38 ↓ (2.49)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.25

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

TPS
36.8%

Draw
24.1%

KalPa
39.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.8%

25.7%

37.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39%

27.2%

35.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The chances for TPS have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

KalPa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for TPS than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for KalPa than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	33.3%	33.3%

TPS - KalPa Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. TPS will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). KalPa will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. TPS (votes: 2 - 66.7%). KalPa (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:3

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Lineups

Line 1
36. Makiniemi E. (G)	40. Lekkas S. (G)
6. Rafkin R. (A)	6. Westerlund F. (A)
40. Lehtonen S.	8. Ruotsalainen V.
49. Wernblom L.	70. Hartikainen T. (A)
86. Yliniemi S.	28. Rissanen J. (C)
19. Savinainen V.	41. Kononen J.
Line 2
38. Landen A.	55. Lappalainen L.
61. Binner A.	18. Gallet H.
87. Saarela A.	16. Okany A.
21. Maatta J. (A)	71. Curry P.
82. Pakkila E.	20. Klemetti A.
Line 3
2. Tuhkala A.	52. Tornberg A.
66. Reunanen T. (C)	7. Mononen V.
84. Pikkarainen K.	22. Borchardt C.
20. Myllymaa K.	12. Saarelainen J.
9. Koivu A.	42. Kapanen K.
Line 4
4. Jokinen M.	89. Ketola J.
10. Ylitalo N.	15. Korkiakoski T.
57. Munkki V.	14. Lantta J.
67. Ruokonen M.	86. Kombe K.
Substitutes
1. Niittymaki A. (G)	47. Boyko T. (G)
Coaches
. Soderholm T.	. Tervonen S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 0)
02:41, Landen A. (2 min),
06:04, Makiniemi E. ↓, Niittymaki A. ↑,
06:50, Niittymaki A. ↓, Makiniemi E. ↑,
2nd Period (0 - 1)
04:07, 0 - 1, Klemetti A. (G), Curry P. (A), Okany A. (A2)
16:40, Borchardt C. (Penalty Shot),
3rd Period (2 - 1)
00:34, 0 - 2, Okany A. (G), Curry P. (A), Klemetti A. (A2)
01:01, 1 - 2, Reunanen T. (G), Wernblom L. (A), Yliniemi S. (A2)
11:41, Mononen V. (2 min),
11:47, 2 - 2, Saarela A. (G), Wernblom L. (A), Binner A. (A2)
Overtime (1 - 0)
00:39, Curry P. (2 min),
00:46, 3 - 2, Wernblom L. (G), Saarela A. (A), Savinainen V. (A2)

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 11 in the zone Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, TPS won 2.

TPS has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

KalPa is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

We predict that KalPa will win today's game, with odds of 2.37.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, TPS won 10 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 40:57. (average 2:2.9).

Including home matches between the teams, TPS won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 21:30. (average 1.9:2.7).

Outrights of Finnish SM-liiga for now

TPS Turku: 3.47%

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
11	TPS Turku	10	5	0	0	5	26:21	15
13	KalPa	10	4	0	1	5	26:23	13

Last Results with these Odds

TPS - the odds 2.54 are the expected chance of winning is 36.77%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

KalPa - the odds 2.49 are the expected chance of winning is 37.51%, but this team recently wins 54% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- TPS hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
24.01.26	Tappara - TPS	4:3 ✺
23.01.26	TPS - Pelicans	3:4 OT ✺
17.01.26	TPS - Tappara	4:2 ✺
16.01.26	HPK - TPS	3:1 ✺
10.01.26	TPS - Kärpät	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 LLWLL
- KalPa hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
24.01.26	KalPa - JYP	1:0 penalties ✺
22.01.26	KalPa - HPK	3:1 ✺
16.01.26	Pelicans - KalPa	1:3 ✺
14.01.26	Kiekko-Espoo - KalPa	1:2 OT ✺
10.01.26	JYP - KalPa	2:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.4 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Finnish SM-liiga
10.10.25	KalPa - TPS	3:4 penalties
20.09.25	TPS - KalPa	0:3
12.03.25	KalPa - TPS	1:0
15.01.25	TPS - KalPa	3:2 OT
20.11.24	TPS - KalPa	1:3
21.09.24	KalPa - TPS	5:0
28.02.24	KalPa - TPS	9:1

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