Match Info

Liiga

Date: 9 January 2026, Friday

Location: Olvi Areena (Kuopio)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	MTV Katsomo+


	KalPa		Vaasan Sport

	1	X	2
	1.3	6.5	7
	1.29	6.19	8.63
	1.27	7.05	7.56	Watch
	1.25	5.5	7
	1.29	6.25	7.85	Watch
	1.34	5.5	7.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.29 ↓ (1.41)	6.17 ↑ (5.29)	7.59 ↑ (6.29)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.75

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

KalPa
72.5%

Draw
15.2%

Vaasan Sport
12.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

67.1%

17.9%

15%

Our Initial ML Estimation

65.5%

18.3%

15.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

KalPa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in KalPa's performance.

Vaasan Sport has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for KalPa than the current prediction. (-7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with KalPa that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vaasan Sport than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	16.7%	0%

KalPa - Vaasan Sport Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 - KalPa (1.57) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1.5, OT - KalPa (1.52) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: KalPa will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): KalPa will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. KalPa (votes: 5 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 4:1

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Lineups

Line 1
40. Lekkas S. (G)	1. Harkonen M. (G)
6. Westerlund F. (A)	5. Claesson L.
97. Kanak L.	53. Aarnio A.
70. Hartikainen T. (A)	86. Granath P.
28. Rissanen J. (C)	12. Straka A. (A)
20. Klemetti A.	3. Bertrand C.
Line 2
55. Lappalainen L.	16. Johnsson T. (A)
18. Gallet H.	7. Hakkila H.
22. Borchardt C.	22. Hult O.
16. Okany A.	18. Ekman T.
42. Kapanen K.	24. Levanen E.
Line 3
52. Tornberg A.	77. Valtanen J.
7. Mononen V.	52. Hietanen V. (C)
15. Korkiakoski T.	33. Harma M.
86. Kombe K.	81. Timonen S.
41. Kononen J.	4. Tiihonen M.
Line 4
3. Karlsson A.	21. Heikkinen I.
39. Mykra O.	91. Immonen V.
14. Lantta J.	8. Hult O.
25. Pakarinen R.
Substitutes
47. Boyko T. (G)	32. Kahila A. (G)
Coaches
. Tervonen S.	. Tapio J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (1 - 2)
03:59, Valtanen J. (2 min),
04:37, 1 - 0, Borchardt C. (G), Rissanen J. (A), Lappalainen L. (A2)
10:33, 1 - 1, Harma M. (G), Tiihonen M. (A),
16:11, Westerlund F. (2 min),
19:09, 1 - 2, Tiihonen M. (G), Hietanen V. (A), Granath P. (A2)
2nd Period (1 - 0)
10:30, Immonen V. (2 min),
10:54, 2 - 2, Borchardt C. (G), Rissanen J. (A), Kapanen K. (A2)
3rd Period (2 - 1)
00:56, Okany A. (2 min),
04:36, 3 - 2, Mykra O. (G), Lantta J. (A),
05:24, Aarnio A. (2 min),
08:14, 4 - 2, Mykra O. (G), Tornberg A. (A), Kombe K. (A2)
10:45, 4 - 3, Tiihonen M. (G), Claesson L. (A), Johnsson T. (A2)

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 16).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, KalPa won 5.

Recent performances by KalPa have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Vaasa has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

KalPa may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, KalPa is seen as the favorite.

We predict that KalPa will win today's game, with odds of 1.51.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, KalPa won 14 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 67:48. (average 3.4:2.4).

Including home matches between the teams, KalPa won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 39:19. (average 3.9:1.9).

Outrights of Finnish SM-liiga for now

Vaasan Sport: 0.76%

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
13	KalPa	11	4	0	1	6	27:29	13
15	Vaasan Sport	11	3	1	2	5	20:31	13

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- KalPa hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
07.01.26	HIFK - KalPa	5:1 ✺
03.01.26	KalPa - Pelicans	2:1 ✺
27.12.25	KalPa - SaiPa	4:2 ✺
26.12.25	SaiPa - KalPa	3:5 ✺
20.12.25	KooKoo - KalPa	2:1 OT ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.2 LWWWL
- Vaasan Sport
Finnish SM-liiga
07.01.26	Ilves - Vaasan Sport	3:2 OT ✺
03.01.26	Kärpät - Vaasan Sport	6:0 ✺
30.12.25	Vaasan Sport - Ässät	2:1 ✺
27.12.25	Vaasan Sport - Ilves	1:4 ✺
26.12.25	Lukko - Vaasan Sport	2:1 OT ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Finnish SM-liiga
04.12.25	KalPa - Vaasan Sport	5:3
29.11.25	Vaasan Sport - KalPa	2:5
15.02.25	KalPa - Vaasan Sport	4:1
11.02.25	Vaasan Sport - KalPa	2:3 OT
13.11.24	KalPa - Vaasan Sport	7:3
05.10.24	Vaasan Sport - KalPa	2:4
17.03.24	Vaasan Sport - KalPa	2:4

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