Match Info

Liiga

Date: 2 October 2026, Friday

Location: Espoo Metro Areena (Espoo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	MTV Katsomo+
Sweden	TV4 Play


	Kiekko-Espoo		Kärpät

	1	X	2
	2.05	4.00	2.85
	1.98	4.00	3.10
	2.17	4.10	2.80	Watch
	2.14	3.72	2.98
	2.14	3.97	2.91	Watch
	2.11	3.65	2.95
	2.10	4.15	2.90	Watch
	2.08	3.90	2.90
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.1 ↑ (2)	3.94 ↑ (3.84)	2.92 ↓ (3.23)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.00

The best margin for this event is 6.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kiekko-Espoo
44.5%

Draw
23.7%

Kärpät
31.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.7%

24.3%

28.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.4%

26.1%

31.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kiekko-Espoo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

Kärpät has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kiekko-Espoo than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kärpät than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	33.3%	0%

Kiekko Espoo - Kärpät Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Kiekko-Espoo will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Line 1
35. Rajaniemi S. (G)	41. Rubin N. (G)
8. Corcoran C.	21. Matinmikko A.
5. Aronsson A.	25. Paaso A.
72. Svejkovsky L.	16. Okany A.
24. Lajunen J. (A)	33. Hirvonen R.
76. Sallinen J. (C)	82. Pakkila E.
Line 2
47. Lajunen V. (A)	9. Soini K.
3. Keskitalo M.	26. Tichacek J.
12. Oberg L.	73. Erholtz E. (C)
15. King C.	31. Koivistoinen E. (A)
16. Vaisanen J.	93. Kantner M.
Line 3
51. Nakyva K.	3. Kokkonen L.
55. Kotkansalo K.	2. Rissanen R.
77. From M.	11. Tornqvist H.
78. Tuomaala A.	19. Tikka T.
4. Kangasniemi I.	27. Ratinen S.
Line 4
7. Jurmo J.	61. Salmela T. (A)
14. Keinanen J.	62. Nilsson W.
17. Talvitie A.	80. Korpimaki M.
28. Hamalainen J.	59. Hermonen J.
Substitutes
30. Rimpinen P. (G)	8. Tieksola T.
90. Salovaara E.	32. Vedenpaa V. (G)
Coaches
. Aho J.	. Karjalainen P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (1 - 2)
00:15, 0 - 1, Pakkila E. (G), Okany A. (A), Hirvonen R. (A2)
07:49, Lajunen J. (2 min),
09:24, 0 - 2, Tichacek J. (G), Nilsson W. (A), Kantner M. (A2)
11:50, 1 - 2, Lajunen J. (G), Sallinen J. (A), Nakyva K. (A2)
16:42, Erholtz E. (2 min),
2nd Period (0 - 0)
01:18, Paaso A. (2 min),
09:11, Matinmikko A. (2 min),
3rd Period (0 - 1)
14:04, 1 - 3, Hirvonen R. (G), Okany A. (A),
14:55, Corcoran C. (2 min),

Preview

An intriguing matchup between an upper-bracket team and a mid-table rival (ranked 5th in the Promotion - Liiga Playoffs - 1/8 - finals and 8th in the Promotion - Liiga Playoffs - 1/8 - finals).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Kiekko-Espoo won 1.

The recent form of both competitors has been marked by mixed results.

Kärpät could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Kiekko-Espoo holding a narrow advantage.

In the last 8 head-to-head meetings, Kiekko-Espoo has recorded 3 wins, 0 draws, and 5 losses, with a goal aggregate of 18:24 (averaging 2.3:3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Kiekko-Espoo against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 0 draws, and 3 losses, with 5:14 goals (averaging 1.3:3.5 per game).

Outrights of Finnish SM-liiga for now

Kiekko-Espoo: 3.85%

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
4	Karpat	13	5	2	3	3	35:34	22
7	Kiekko-Espoo	13	5	1	3	4	42:32	20

Last Results with these Odds

Kiekko-Espoo - the odds 2 are the expected chance of winning is 46.73%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Kärpät - the odds 3.23 are the expected chance of winning is 28.93%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kiekko-Espoo
Finnish SM-liiga
30.09.26	Kiekko-Espoo - TPS	4:2 ✺
26.09.26	Kiekko-Espoo - Jokerit	4:1 ✺
25.09.26	Mikkelin Jukurit - Kiekko-Espoo	2:1 OT ✺
23.09.26	Vaasan Sport - Kiekko-Espoo	0:1 AET ✺
19.09.26	Ässät - Kiekko-Espoo	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 WWLWL
- Kärpat Oulu
Finnish SM-liiga
30.09.26	Kärpät - SaiPa	4:1 ✺
26.09.26	Vaasan Sport - Kärpät	1:2 ✺
23.09.26	HIFK - Kärpät	3:1 ✺
22.09.26	Tappara - Kärpät	4:0 ✺
19.09.26	Kärpät - Vaasan Sport	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Finnish SM-liiga
23.01.26	Kiekko-Espoo - Kärpät	1:2
17.12.25	Kärpät - Kiekko-Espoo	4:3
19.11.25	Kärpät - Kiekko-Espoo	3:1
04.10.25	Kiekko-Espoo - Kärpät	1:5
17.01.25	Kärpät - Kiekko-Espoo	1:4
20.12.24	Kiekko-Espoo - Kärpät	0:5
22.11.24	Kiekko-Espoo - Kärpät	3:2 OT

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