Match Info

Liiga

Date: 30 September 2026, Wednesday

Location: Espoo Metro Areena (Espoo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	MTV Katsomo+
Sweden	TV4 Play


	Kiekko-Espoo		TPS

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.80	2.65
	2.18	3.75	2.85
	2.48	3.85	2.50	Watch
	2.40	3.61	2.65
	2.2	3.8	2.85	Watch
	2.35	3.55	2.60
	2.39	3.92	2.54	Watch
	2.38	3.75	2.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.33 ↑ (2.24)	3.75 ↓ (3.78)	2.65 ↓ (2.78)

The most likely Over/Under: 4.50

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kiekko-Espoo
40%

Draw
24.8%

TPS
35.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.7%

24.7%

33.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.6%

26%

35.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kiekko-Espoo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

TPS has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kiekko-Espoo than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for TPS than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	20%	20%

Kiekko Espoo - TPS Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Kiekko-Espoo will win (votes: 3 - 60%). TPS will win (votes: 1 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Line 1
30. Rimpinen P. (G)	36. Makiniemi E. (G)
8. Corcoran C.	38. Landen A.
5. Aronsson A.	61. Binner A.
72. Svejkovsky L.	25. Ikonen Jo.
24. Lajunen J. (A)	97. Haudum L.
76. Sallinen J. (C)	22. Bryggman L. (A)
Line 2
47. Lajunen V. (A)	2. Tuhkala A.
3. Keskitalo M.	40. Lehtonen S.
12. Oberg L.	49. Wernblom L.
15. King C.	13. Paajanen O. (C)
28. Hamalainen J.	86. Yliniemi S.
Line 3
51. Nakyva K.	6. Rafkin R. (A)
55. Kotkansalo K.	44. Lindbohm P.
77. From M.	9. Koivu A.
78. Tuomaala A.	21. Maatta J.
4. Kangasniemi I.	19. Savinainen V.
Line 4
7. Jurmo J.	7. Lauridsen O.
25. Puolanne E.	10. Ylitalo N.
17. Talvitie A.	47. Kuru H.
16. Vaisanen J.	57. Munkki V.
Substitutes
14. Keinanen J.	32. Vali N. (G)
35. Rajaniemi S. (G)	24. Virtanen J.
Coaches
. Aho J.	. Soderholm T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 0)
15:19, Svejkovsky L. (2 min),
2nd Period (3 - 0)
03:34, 1 - 0, Corcoran C. (G), From M. (A), Tuomaala A. (A2)
03:51, 2 - 0, Vaisanen J. (G), Talvitie A. (A),
08:03, Ylitalo N. (2 min),
09:37, 3 - 0, Svejkovsky L. (G), Tuomaala A. (A), Oberg L. (A2)
11:13, Binner A. (2 min),
17:30, Nakyva K. (2 min),
17:30, Ikonen Jo. (2 min),
19:31, Aronsson A. (2 min),
3rd Period (1 - 2)
09:21, 4 - 0, Oberg L. (G), King C. (A), Vaisanen J. (A2)
10:12, 4 - 1, Haudum L. (G), Bryggman L. (A), Ikonen Jo. (A2)
11:38, 4 - 2, Virtanen J. (G), Landen A. (A), Savinainen V. (A2)
17:12, Nakyva K. (2 min),

Preview

Two mid-table squads battle for vital points to solidify their season (ranked 7th in the Promotion ~ Liiga Playoffs1/8~finals) and 8th in the Promotion ~ Liiga Playoffs1/8~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Kiekko-Espoo won 3.

The recent form of both competitors has been marked by mixed results.

TPS may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Kiekko-Espoo has faced a series of away games on the road.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 10 head-to-head meetings, Kiekko-Espoo has recorded 6 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses, with a goal aggregate of 29:24 (averaging 2.9:2.4 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Kiekko-Espoo against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with 16:7 goals (averaging 4:1.8 per game).

Outrights of Finnish SM-liiga for now

Kiekko-Espoo: 3.85% TPS Turku: 3.47%

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
7	Kiekko-Espoo	13	5	1	3	4	42:32	20
11	TPS Turku	10	5	0	0	5	26:21	15

Last Results with these Odds

Kiekko-Espoo - the odds 2.24 are the expected chance of winning is 41.7%, but this team recently wins 52% of matches with these odds.

TPS - the odds 2.78 are the expected chance of winning is 33.6%, but this team recently wins 27% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kiekko-Espoo
Finnish SM-liiga
26.09.26	Kiekko-Espoo - Jokerit	4:1 ✺
25.09.26	Mikkelin Jukurit - Kiekko-Espoo	2:1 OT ✺
23.09.26	Vaasan Sport - Kiekko-Espoo	0:1 AET ✺
19.09.26	Ässät - Kiekko-Espoo	2:1 ✺
15.09.26	SaiPa - Kiekko-Espoo	2:1 OT ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 WLWLL
- TPS hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
27.09.26	Ilves - TPS	3:2 ✺
25.09.26	Jokerit - TPS	1:2 ✺
19.09.26	HPK - TPS	3:1 ✺
17.09.26	TPS - Tappara	4:0 ✺
15.09.26	TPS - Mikkelin Jukurit	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 LWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Finnish SM-liiga
27.12.25	Kiekko-Espoo - TPS	8:1
26.12.25	TPS - Kiekko-Espoo	0:1
03.12.25	TPS - Kiekko-Espoo	5:0
12.11.25	Kiekko-Espoo - TPS	2:4
05.03.25	Kiekko-Espoo - TPS	2:1 OT
24.01.25	TPS - Kiekko-Espoo	4:3 OT
11.12.24	Kiekko-Espoo - TPS	4:1

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