Match Info

National League - Round 33

Date: 7 December 2025, Sunday

Location: Cornèr Arena (Lugano)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV
Switzerland	MySports, MySports


	Lugano		Bern

	1	X	2
	1.87	4.2	3.4	Watch
	1.9	4.15	3.35
	1.8	3.97	3.49
	1.83	4.16	3.61	Watch
	1.8	3.9	3.2
	1.92	4.14	3.5	Watch
	1.83	4	3.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.85 ↓ (2.03)	4.07 ↑ (4.04)	3.39 ↑ (3.12)

The most likely Over/Under: 4.75

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lugano
50%

Draw
22.7%

Bern
27.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.5%

23.3%

30.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.2%

23%

29.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lugano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

Bern has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lugano than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bern than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

Lugano - Bern Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Line 1
37. Van Pottelberghe J. (G)	36. Reideborn A. (G)
22. Alatalo S.	58. Loeffel R.
25. Muller M.	37. Lindholm A.
94. Simion D.	71. Bemstrom E.
97. Thurkauf C. (C)	15. Aaltonen M.
16. Emanuelsson E.	8. Marchon M.
Line 2
26. Aebischer D.	65. Untersander R. (C)
63. Dahlstrom C.	51. Rhyn N.
17. Fazzini L.	17. Moser L.
21. Sanford Z.	19. Merela W.
14. Canonica L.	10. Scherwey T.
Line 3
58. Carrick C.	75. Yakovenko A.
52. Peltonen J.	41. Kindschi S.
7. Tanner R.	86. Vermin J.
92. Sgarbossa M.	43. Graf A.
10. Sekac J.	23. Lehmann M.
Line 4
9. Zanetti B.	14. Fullemann L.
11. Zanetti M.	88. Schild T.
23. Morini G.	91. Ritzmann F.
12. Peltonen A.	64. Alge M.
Substitutes
34. Schlegel N. (G)	85. Schenk F.
	33. Zurkirchen S. (G)
Coaches
. Mitell T.	. Ehlers H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (1 - 0)
00:42, Loeffel R. (2 min),
08:25, Lindholm A. (2 min),
10:22, 1 - 0, Emanuelsson E. (G), Sgarbossa M. (A), Sekac J. (A2)
12:02, Sanford Z. (2 min),
2nd Period (1 - 1)
05:25, Carrick C. (2 min),
09:40, Kindschi S. (2 min),
10:24, 2 - 0, Simion D. (G), Thurkauf C. (A),
11:41, 2 - 1, Bemstrom E. (G), Lehmann M. (A),
3rd Period (1 - 0)
03:13, Lindholm A. (2 min),
03:55, 3 - 1, Fazzini L. (G), Sanford Z. (A), Alatalo S. (A2)
09:12, Morini G. (2 min),
19:04, Marchon M. (2 min),

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ National League (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lugano won 3.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Lugano may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Lugano could have a small edge in this match.

We predict that Lugano will win today's game, with odds of 1.94.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Lugano won 14 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 61:49. (average 3.1:2.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Lugano won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 28:23. (average 3.1:2.6).

Last Results with these Odds

Bern - the odds 3.12 are the expected chance of winning is 30.18%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- HC Lugano
Swiss National League Hockey
05.12.25	Lugano - EHC Kloten	4:1 ✺
30.11.25	Rapperswil-Jona Lakers - Lugano	3:2 penalties ✺
28.11.25	Lugano - Ambrì-Piotta	5:1 ✺
21.11.25	EV Zug - Lugano	2:3 ✺
20.11.25	Lugano - Fribourg-Gottéron	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 WLWWL
- SC Bern
Swiss National League Hockey
06.12.25	Bern - SCL Tigers	5:1 ✺
03.12.25	Bern - Biel	6:2 ✺
29.11.25	Fribourg-Gottéron - Bern	2:1 ✺
28.11.25	Bern - ZSC Lions	2:1 ✺
25.11.25	EV Zug - Bern	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Swiss National League Hockey
24.10.25	Bern - Lugano	1:4
23.09.25	Lugano - Bern	0:3
14.02.25	Lugano - Bern	1:3
02.01.25	Bern - Lugano	1:4
29.10.24	Bern - Lugano	1:3
24.09.24	Lugano - Bern	6:4
20.01.24	Lugano - Bern	5:4

Lugano - Bern: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide