Match Info

VHL

Date: 16 January 2026, Friday

Location: Dvorets Sporta Arktika (Norilsk)


	Norilsk		Dizel Penza

	1	X	2
	2.57	4.18	2.27	Watch
	2.45	4.25	2.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.51 ↓ (3.55)	4.22 ↑ (3.78)	2.21 ↑ (1.82)

The most likely Over/Under: 4.50

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Norilsk
36.6%

Draw
21.8%

Dizel Penza
41.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.7%

24.1%

50.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26%

23.8%

49.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Norilsk has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Norilsk's performance.

Dizel Penza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Dizel Penza might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Norilsk than the current prediction. (-10.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Norilsk that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Dizel Penza than the current prediction. (+8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Dizel Penza could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	33.3%	0%

Norilsk - Dizel Penza Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Norilsk will win (votes: 4 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:3

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Lineups

Line 1
45. Nikitin V. (G)	27. Arzamastsev A. (G)
18. Alexeyev D.	68. Rudakov G.
44. Kovalev I.	75. Pogorishny O. (A)
11. Shevchenko V. (A)	10. Popov D.
19. Aksenov A.	71. Kolmykov M.
56. Mokin N. (C)	78. Balashov M.
Line 2
28. Makeyev N.	6. Lukichyov A.
64. Minayev Y.	7. Spitsenko K.
69. Skorikov D.	23. Sidlyarov D. (C)
71. Golodnyuk S.	47. Bobylyov V.
89. Gorbunov D. (A)	97. Borisenkov A.
Line 3
21. Kolomiytsev I.	83. Sukhov S.
79. Chebykin Y.	98. Lyulko V.
10. Lipanov A.	34. Larichev V.
92. Yakovlev Y.	41. Lukin V.
93. Korenev I.	95. Pochivalov D.
Line 4
72. Korchemkin D.	77. Bannikov A.
63. Yemets I.	69. Boluchevsky A.
91. Lazarev A.	73. Latypov G.
51. Popov O.	87. Karapetyan D.
Substitutes
37. Botov M. (G)	31. Kudashev D. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 2)
00:39, 0 - 1, Popov D. (G),
12:12, 0 - 2, Bobylyov V. (G), Sukhov S. (A), Lyulko V. (A2)
2nd Period (0 - 0)
3rd Period (0 - 1)
08:41, 0 - 3, Borisenkov A. (G), Sidlyarov D. (A), Bobylyov V. (A2)

Preview

Norilsk is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Dizel has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Dizel may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Dizel has had a series of away games.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

We predict that Norilsk will win today's game, with odds of 2.62.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Norilsk won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:9. (average 2.2:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Norilsk won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:6. (average 1:3).

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
7	HC Norilsk	13	6	1	2	4	27:29	16
16	Dizel	11	3	2	2	4	24:24	12

Last Results with these Odds

Norilsk - the odds 3.55 are the expected chance of winning is 25.69%, but this team recently wins 36% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- HK Norilsk
VHL
14.01.26	Norilsk - Ryazan	3:4 OT ✺
12.01.26	Norilsk - AKM	6:2 ✺
29.12.25	Sokol Krasnoyarsk - Norilsk	2:3 penalties ✺
23.12.25	Bars Kazan - Norilsk	1:4 ✺
21.12.25	CSK VVS Samara - Norilsk	3:4 OT ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 26.7 LWWWW
- Dizel Penza
VHL
13.01.26	Sokol Krasnoyarsk - Dizel Penza	1:4 ✺
11.01.26	Metallurg Novokuznetsk - Dizel Penza	4:3 ✺
09.01.26	Dynamo-Altay - Dizel Penza	3:1 ✺
28.12.25	Kristall Saratov - Dizel Penza	5:0 ✺
24.12.25	Dizel Penza - Buran Voronezh	6:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 WLLLW

Latest Head to Head

VHL
07.11.25	Dizel Penza - Norilsk	2:1
06.03.25	Norilsk - Dizel Penza	0:2
19.09.24	Dizel Penza - Norilsk	1:3
14.02.24	Dizel Penza - Norilsk	0:5
06.09.23	Norilsk - Dizel Penza	2:4

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