Match Info

VHL

Date: 10 October 2026, Saturday


	Norilsk		Toros Neftekamsk

	1	X	2
	1.98	3.38	2.97
	1.94	3.3	2.9
	2.23	3.84	2.78	Watch
	2.18	3.75	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.08 ↓ (2.27)	3.57 ↓ (3.77)	2.85 ↑ (2.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 4.50

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Norilsk
43.2%

Draw
25.2%

Toros Neftekamsk
31.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.2%

24.2%

35.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.1%

26.2%

38.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Norilsk has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

Toros Neftekamsk has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Norilsk than the current prediction. (-6.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Norilsk that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toros Neftekamsk than the current prediction. (+7.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Toros Neftekamsk could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Norilsk - Toros Neftekamsk Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Toros (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Line 1
98. Gluschenko R. (G)	31. Bai Y. (G)
4. Shalapov Y. (C)	49. Gurkin Y. (C)
11. Steklov K.	36. Gunkin Y.
88. Shalagin M. (A)	44. Khvorov N.
52. Shevchenko V.	22. Sedantsov O. (A)
8. Avramenko I.	23. Sidlyarov D.
Line 2
43. Sinitsky I.	48. Khafzetdinov A.
66. Drugalya S. (A)	19. Zhikharev N.
86. Kirileichenko M.	59. Korbit P.
36. Zlodeyev D.	25. Valeyev T. (A)
23. Klimovich Y.	28. Akhsyanov B.
Line 3
5. Krasnov A.	9. Orlov
74. Perelyayev S.	76. Pykhtin D.
14. Sinyatkin S.	17. Tkach D.
87. Gorbunov Y.	10. Filyayev V.
71. Rasseikin M.	94. Petrenko D.
Line 4
22. Rodionov A.	46. Elsukov
28. Shevchenko A.	88. Kolesnikov S.
10. Lipanov A.	77. Faizov A.
89. Yemets I.	71. Volokitin P.
	7. Skoropad N.
Substitutes
70. Voityuk V. (G)	1. Yelin I. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (1 - 1)
03:12, 0 - 1, Khvorov N. (G), Gurkin Y. (A), Sidlyarov D. (A2)
15:22, 1 - 1, Zlodeyev D. (G), Avramenko I. (A), Shalagin M. (A2)
2nd Period (1 - 1)
05:00, 2 - 1, Avramenko I. (G), Steklov K. (A),
06:23, 2 - 2, Volokitin P. (G), Skoropad N. (A), Pykhtin D. (A2)
3rd Period (3 - 1)
01:06, 3 - 2, Shalagin M. (G), Drugalya S. (A), Shevchenko V. (A2)
04:57, 3 - 3, Sedantsov O. (G), Kolesnikov S. (A), Gurkin Y. (A2)
07:35, 4 - 3, Shalagin M. (G), Drugalya S. (A), Zlodeyev D. (A2)
19:41, 5 - 3, Klimovich Y. (G), Krasnov A. (A),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Norilsk won 2.

Each of the two teams is seeking greater consistency after recent ups and downs.

Toros could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, Norilsk has recorded 2 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses, with a goal aggregate of 14:17 (averaging 2.3:2.8 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Norilsk against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with 7:8 goals (averaging 2.3:2.7 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
4	HC Norilsk	14	7	1	2	4	32:32	18
13	Toros Neftekamsk	12	6	0	2	4	30:29	14

Last Results with these Odds

Toros Neftekamsk - the odds 2.55 are the expected chance of winning is 35.67%, but this team recently wins 19% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- HK Norilsk
VHL
08.10.26	Norilsk - Izhstal	3:2 ✺
06.10.26	Norilsk - Olympia Kirovo-Chepetsk	3:2 ✺
01.10.26	Kristall Saratov - Norilsk	2:3 penalties ✺
29.09.26	Dizel Penza - Norilsk	5:0 ✺
27.09.26	Tambov - Norilsk	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 WWWLL
- Toros Neftekamsk
VHL
05.10.26	Toros Neftekamsk - Kaluga	0:1 ✺
03.10.26	Toros Neftekamsk - AKM	0:3 ✺
01.10.26	Toros Neftekamsk - Ryazan	3:0 ✺
23.09.26	Bars Kazan - Toros Neftekamsk	1:3 ✺
21.09.26	Neftyanik Almetyevsk - Toros Neftekamsk	3:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.6 LLWWW

Latest Head to Head

VHL
24.01.26	Toros Neftekamsk - Norilsk	5:2
27.10.25	Norilsk - Toros Neftekamsk	1:2 OT
18.01.25	Toros Neftekamsk - Norilsk	0:2
03.11.24	Norilsk - Toros Neftekamsk	3:2
02.02.24	Norilsk - Toros Neftekamsk	3:4 penalties
20.09.23	Toros Neftekamsk - Norilsk	4:3 penalties

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