Match Info

OHL

Date: 18 February 2026, Wednesday

Location: Progressive Auto Sales Arena (Sarnia, ON)


	Sarnia Sting		Guelph Storm

	1	X	2
	3.35	5.27	1.71
	3.37	5.14	1.68	Watch
	3.5	4.6	1.67
	3.25	5	1.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.37 ↑ (2.88)	5 ↑ (4.45)	1.68 ↓ (1.94)

The best margin for this event is 7.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sarnia Sting
27.2%

Draw
18.3%

Guelph Storm
54.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.9%

20.7%

47.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.6%

21.8%

45%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sarnia Sting has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

Guelph Storm has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Guelph Storm's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sarnia Sting than the current prediction. (+6.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Sarnia Sting, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Guelph Storm than the current prediction. (-9.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Guelph Storm, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Osipenko K. (G)	55. Ellsworth C. (G)
6. Aucoin C.	17. Babin P.
33. Aucoin K.	13. Beauchesne Q. (A)
61. Bax J. (A)	89. Belohorsky S.
40. Beamish L.	3. Frossard E.
84. Challenger T.	73. Gallacher L.
17. Di Iorio A. (C)	75. Haponenko M.
71. Gaughan C.	91. Hopkins T. (A)
10. Hall C.	19. Jenken N.
26. Hawery L.	93. McFadden W.
77. Hurt H. (A)	72. McKenzie H.
93. Lammens B.	15. Miedema E.
55. Manza M.	22. Pape M.
12. Pickell B. (A)	20. Serlin L.
7. Reese J.	81. Shybinskyi I.
16. Sewell C.	9. Snelgrove P.
19. Solomon H.	21. Spada G.
14. Van Volsen J.	96. Stevens C.
11. Walos E.	12. Topp R. (A)
	77. Wycisk J.
Substitutes
32. Quinlan P. (G)	30. Jovanovski Z. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 0)
2nd Period (2 - 1)
01:41, 1 - 0, Pickell B. (G), Beamish L. (A),
12:55, 1 - 1, Serlin L. (G), McFadden W. (A), Jenken N. (A2)
17:34, 2 - 1, Reese J. (G), Solomon H. (A), Manza M. (A2)
3rd Period (0 - 1)
08:11, 2 - 2, McKenzie H. (G), Beauchesne Q. (A), Spada G. (A2)
Overtime (0 - 1)
01:50, 2 - 3, Beauchesne Q. (G), Hopkins T. (A), Wycisk J. (A2)

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 9 and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ OHL (Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sarnia won 4.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Guelph may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Guelph might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Sarnia won 12 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 79:60. (average 4:3).

Including home matches between the teams, Sarnia won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 37:23. (average 4.1:2.6).

Last Results with these Odds

Sarnia Sting - the odds 2.88 are the expected chance of winning is 31.93%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Guelph Storm - the odds 1.94 are the expected chance of winning is 47.4%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sarnia Sting
OHL
16.02.26	Sarnia Sting - Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds	5:6 penalties ✺
13.02.26	Sarnia Sting - Saginaw Spirit	3:11 ✺
12.02.26	Windsor Spitfires - Sarnia Sting	6:4 ✺
07.02.26	Brampton Steelheads - Sarnia Sting	1:2 OT ✺
06.02.26	Oshawa Generals - Sarnia Sting	3:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 LLLWW
- Guelph Storm
OHL
16.02.26	Guelph Storm - Erie Otters	5:1 ✺
14.02.26	Brantford Bulldogs - Guelph Storm	4:2 ✺
13.02.26	Guelph Storm - Flint Firebirds	1:5 ✺
11.02.26	London Knights - Guelph Storm	2:4 ✺
09.02.26	Niagara IceDogs - Guelph Storm	3:6 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.6 WLLWW

Latest Head to Head

OHL
14.12.25	Sarnia Sting - Guelph Storm	6:4
12.12.25	Guelph Storm - Sarnia Sting	2:3 penalties
02.11.25	Guelph Storm - Sarnia Sting	4:1
07.03.25	Guelph Storm - Sarnia Sting	1:5
02.03.25	Sarnia Sting - Guelph Storm	3:1
12.02.25	Sarnia Sting - Guelph Storm	3:4 OT
31.01.25	Guelph Storm - Sarnia Sting	3:4

Sarnia Sting - Guelph Storm: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide