Match Info

ICE Hockey League - Round 36

Date: 3 January 2026, Saturday

Location: TIWAG Arena (Innsbruck)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV


	TWK Innsbruck		EC KAC

	1	X	2
	5.75	6	1.33
	6.95	5.65	1.32
	5.97	5.97	1.36	Watch
	6.21	5.5	1.34
	6.25	7	1.22
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.23 ↑ (5.33)	6.02 ↑ (5.23)	1.31 ↓ (1.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.75

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

TWK Innsbruck
14.8%

Draw
15.3%

EC KAC
70%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

17.4%

17.7%

64.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

17.3%

17.6%

65.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

TWK Innsbruck has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

EC KAC has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting EC KAC's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for TWK Innsbruck than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for EC KAC than the current prediction. (-4.7%)

TWK Innsbruck - EC KAC Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:4

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Lineups

Line 1
81. Brandner J. (G)	31. Sicher M. (G)
4. Stoffler E.	12. Maier D.
27. Kudla P.	6. Sablattnig T.
21. Benker S.	77. From M.
12. Corbeil B.	29. Kempe M.
47. Witting M.	97. Hochegger F.
Line 2
2. Moberg C.	82. Nickl T.
5. Kerber N.	4. Teves J.
77. Craighead D.	8. Petersen N.
60. Coatta M.	9. Mursak J.
89. Bar L.	16. Schwinger S.
Line 3
13. Steffler D.	39. Simovic F.
98. Lattner J.	92. Unterweger C.
20. Rappold K.	89. Herburger R.
93. Lajeunesse T.	81. van Ee F.
29. Klingler L.	90. Fraser M.
Line 4
61. Frimmel W.
53. Ebner M.
24. Erlacher A.
44. Mader T.
23. Dobnig J.
Substitutes
30. Vernon M. (G)	71. Dobrovolny J.
	98. Obersteiner D.
	33. Vorauer F. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (1 - 1)
04:56, 0 - 1, Mursak J. (G), Sablattnig T. (A), Maier D. (A2)
08:39, 1 - 1, Lajeunesse T. (G),
2nd Period (0 - 2)
02:49, 1 - 2, Simovic F. (G), Herburger R. (A), Obersteiner D. (A2)
03:38, 1 - 3, Hochegger F. (G), van Ee F. (A), Maier D. (A2)
3rd Period (0 - 1)
14:12, 1 - 4, From M. (G), Hochegger F. (A),

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 13 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ ICE Hockey League (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Innsbruck won 2.

Recent form of Innsbruck has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

EC KAC has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Innsbruck may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, EC KAC is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Innsbruck won 10 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 57:67. (average 2.9:3.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Innsbruck won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 29:34. (average 2.9:3.4).

Outrights of Austrian Ice Hockey League for now

Klagenfurt: 17.26% TWK Innsbruck: 0.84%

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
3	Klagenfurt	9	5	1	0	3	37:27	17
11	TWK Innsbruck	9	3	1	0	5	22:26	11

Last Results with these Odds

TWK Innsbruck - the odds 5.33 are the expected chance of winning is 17.4%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- TWK Innsbruck
Austrian Ice Hockey League
01.01.26	Villacher - TWK Innsbruck	6:2 ✺
30.12.25	TWK Innsbruck - Red Bull Salzburg	0:4 ✺
28.12.25	Black Wings Linz - TWK Innsbruck	4:1 ✺
26.12.25	TWK Innsbruck - Pustertal-Val Pusteria	1:7 ✺
21.12.25	TWK Innsbruck - Villacher	5:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 LLLLW
- EC KAC
Austrian Ice Hockey League
01.01.26	EC KAC - Bolzano	1:2 OT ✺
30.12.25	Olimpija Ljubljana - EC KAC	3:2 ✺
28.12.25	Vienna Capitals - EC KAC	1:3 ✺
27.12.25	EC KAC - Villacher	5:2 ✺
21.12.25	Ferencvárosi - EC KAC	0:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 LLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Austrian Ice Hockey League
26.11.25	TWK Innsbruck - EC KAC	9:6
31.10.25	EC KAC - TWK Innsbruck	5:1
26.01.25	EC KAC - TWK Innsbruck	11:3
05.01.25	TWK Innsbruck - EC KAC	0:3
27.11.24	TWK Innsbruck - EC KAC	4:3
01.11.24	EC KAC - TWK Innsbruck	1:4
26.01.24	EC KAC - TWK Innsbruck	2:3 penalties

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