Match Info

NHL

Date: 26 November 2025, Wednesday

Location: Benchmark International Arena (Tampa, FL)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+
Chile	Disney+
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay, V Sport Premium
Germany	NHL.tv
Iceland	Viaplay
Mexico	Sky Sport
Norway	Viaplay
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Premium
United-kingdom	DAZN
Uruguay	Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+
World	NHL.tv


	Tampa Bay Lightning		Calgary Flames

	1	X	2
	1.87	4.2	3.5	Watch
	1.88	4.58	3.31
	1.94	4.4	3.28
	1.94	4.35	3.19	Watch
	1.94	4.42	3.27
	1.9	4.3	3.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.91 ↓ (1.94)	4.38 ↑ (4.35)	3.31 ↑ (3.19)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.50

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tampa Bay Lightning
49.6%

Draw
21.7%

Calgary Flames
28.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.7%

21.7%

29.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.7%

20.8%

28.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tampa Bay Lightning has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

Calgary Flames has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tampa Bay Lightning than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Calgary Flames than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	16.7%	16.7%

Tampa Bay Lightning - Calgary Flames Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Tampa Bay will win (votes: 8 - 66.7%). Calgary will win (votes: 2 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Tampa Bay: 40% – 93.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Tampa Bay (votes: 3 - 60%). Calgary (votes: 2 - 40%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Line 1
88. Vasilevski A. (G)	32. Wolf D. (G)
43. Raddysh D.	4. Andersson R. (A)
90. Moser J.J.	7. Bahl K.
86. Kucherov N. (A)	27. Coronato M.
71. Cirelli A.	16. Frost M.
38. Hagel B. (A)	10. Huberdeau J.
Line 2
78. Lilleberg E.	52. Weegar M.
51. D'Astous C.	37. Kuznetsov Y.
17. James D.	86. Farabee J.
20. Paul N.	91. Kadri N.
59. Guentzel J. (A)	17. Sharangovich Y.
Line 3
16. Santini S.	94. Pachal B.
67. Carlile D.	44. Hanley J.
29. Holmberg P.	20. Coleman B. (A)
37. Gourde Y.	11. Backlund M. (C)
28. Girgensons Z.	47. Zary C.
Line 4
22. Bjorkstrand O.	43. Klapka A.
62. Finley J.	18. Beecher J.
93. Goncalves G.	70. Lomberg R.
Substitutes
31. Johansson J. (G)	1. Cooley D. (G)
Coaches
. Cooper J.	. Huska R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (4 - 0)
00:39, 1 - 0, Hagel B. (G), Cirelli A. (A), Kucherov N. (A2)
01:26, 2 - 0, D'Astous C. (G), Paul N. (A), Guentzel J. (A2)
05:52, 3 - 0, Girgensons Z. (G), Gourde Y. (A), Holmberg P. (A2)
05:52, Wolf D. ↓, Cooley D. ↑,
10:01, 4 - 0, Carlile D. (G), Santini S. (A), Guentzel J. (A2)
12:05, Lilleberg E. (2 min),
16:44, Moser J.J. (2 min),
18:56, Lilleberg E. (2 min),
2nd Period (0 - 0)
00:30, Andersson R. (2 min),
01:19, Kucherov N. (2 min),
09:02, Pachal B. (2 min),
14:25, Coleman B. (2 min),
19:25, Huberdeau J. (2 min),
3rd Period (1 - 1)
01:04, 4 - 1, Farabee J. (G), Beecher J. (A), Kuznetsov Y. (A2)
14:23, 5 - 1, Kucherov N. (G), Hagel B. (A), Raddysh D. (A2)

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ NHL (Play Offs: ) and 15).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tampa Bay won 2.

Tampa Bay is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Calgary has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Recently, Tampa Bay has had a series of home games.

Tampa Bay might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Tampa Bay: Cernak E. (Injury) Hedman V. (Injury) Holmberg P. (Injury) McDonagh R. (Injury) Point B. (Injury)

There will not play in Calgary: Honzek S. (Upper-Body Injury) Parekh Z. (Upper-Body Injury) Pospisil M. (Injury)

There are questionable in Tampa Bay: Crozier M. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Tampa Bay won 12 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 71:61. (average 3.6:3.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Tampa Bay won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 36:29. (average 3.3:2.6).

Last Results with these Odds

Tampa Bay Lightning - the odds 1.94 are the expected chance of winning is 48.68%, but this team recently wins 58% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tampa Bay Lightning
NHL
24.11.25	Tampa Bay Lightning - Philadelphia Flyers	3:0 ✺
22.11.25	Washington Capitals - Tampa Bay Lightning	3:5 ✺
20.11.25	Tampa Bay Lightning - Edmonton Oilers	2:1 OT ✺
18.11.25	Tampa Bay Lightning - New Jersey Devils	5:1 ✺
16.11.25	Tampa Bay Lightning - Vancouver Canucks	2:6 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.2 WWWWL
- Calgary Flames
NHL
23.11.25	Vancouver Canucks - Calgary Flames	2:5 ✺
22.11.25	Calgary Flames - Dallas Stars	3:2 penalties ✺
19.11.25	Buffalo Sabres - Calgary Flames	2:6 ✺
18.11.25	Chicago Blackhawks - Calgary Flames	5:2 ✺
15.11.25	Calgary Flames - Winnipeg Jets	3:4 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.7 WWWLL

Latest Head to Head

NHL
27.02.25	Tampa Bay Lightning - Calgary Flames	3:0
12.12.24	Calgary Flames - Tampa Bay Lightning	3:8
07.03.24	Tampa Bay Lightning - Calgary Flames	3:6
16.12.23	Calgary Flames - Tampa Bay Lightning	4:2
21.01.23	Calgary Flames - Tampa Bay Lightning	6:3
17.11.22	Tampa Bay Lightning - Calgary Flames	4:1
10.03.22	Calgary Flames - Tampa Bay Lightning	4:1

Tampa Bay Lightning - Calgary Flames: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide